Cebu: Academics assess the ASEAN summit's outcomes under the "Anutin Model 2026," indicating Thailand is shifting from a "follower" to a "game controller," using economics to resolve conflicts and create a new geopolitical balance.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Yuthaporn Isarachai, a political science and public policy scholar, analyzed the outcomes of the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, Philippines, from May 7-9, 2026, stating that the forum was not merely a routine diplomatic meeting but was becoming a 'strategic turning point' for the ASEAN region amidst pressure from geopolitical conflicts and global economic volatility.
In particular, the role of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is seen as shifting Thailand's position from "observer" to "co-designer of regional peace and economy" through strategic cooperation with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet. Academics view the key strength of Thailand's strategy as using "economics to drive security" and leveraging cooperation in trade, energy, and logistics as tools to mitigate political tensions and international conflicts.
Associate Professor Yuthaporn stated that, in economic terms, Thailand has proposed concepts reflecting the upgrading of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to a new era through three key mechanisms. Firstly, promoting the "ASEAN Digital Trade Corridor," an ASEAN digital trade system that seamlessly connects cross-border payments and digital data exchange to reduce costs for Thai SMEs trading with ASEAN member countries. Secondly, promoting new logistics routes connecting Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines to open up transportation routes for agricultural products and industrial parts, reducing reliance on shipping routes which are at risk from tensions in the South China Sea.
And thirdly, the announcement of Thailand's role as a "Green Investment Hub" in the region aims to attract investment in clean energy and green infrastructure within ASEAN.
The most important highlight of this meeting was the attempt to reduce tensions between Thailand and Cambodia through an approach called "The Cebu Consensus," particularly the concept of "separating sovereignty disputes from economic interests" in the overlapping maritime area (OCA). Both sides agreed in principle to establish a Joint Technical Committee (JTC) to expedite the exploration and study of energy potential, both natural gas and oil, in the area. This is seen as a potential mechanism for ensuring energy security for both countries during a period of volatile global energy prices.
Meanwhile, Thailand and Cambodia also discussed enhancing cooperation on border matters, combating call center gangs and transnational crime, and jointly managing border crossings. This will help reduce security friction and increase the value of border trade in the long term.
Associate Professor Yutthaporn further stated that Thailand is trying to promote the concept of "Positive Peace," which does not merely mean the absence of war, but also means that people have food, jobs, and access to energy at reasonable prices. This led to the proposal of the "ASEAN Food Bank and Energy Storage Network," a concept for creating a regional food and energy reserve network, utilizing the agricultural potential of Thailand and Cambodia, combined with the technology and disaster management systems of the Philippines.
Strategically, scholars assess that Thailand will gain increased "bargaining power" on the international stage, as it positions itself as a "mediator" between countries increasingly aligned with the West, such as the Philippines, and countries with close ties to China, such as Cambodia. This also presents opportunities to unlock economic value from energy and cross-border investments in the future.
However, significant risks remain, particularly regarding overlapping maritime areas, which could be interpreted politically within the country and used as a weapon by nationalist factions if the government fails to communicate its strategic approach clearly and transparently to the public. Furthermore, negotiations on benefit-sharing within the OCA (Organization of Commons and Coastal Resources) are technically sensitive issues requiring careful consideration to avoid long-term disadvantages for Thailand.
This ASEAN meeting in Cebu reflects Thailand's attempt to transform its role into that of a "Connector State," using the economy as a tool for regional stability and peace. It is seen that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's strategy reflects a new concept: "The most sustainable peace is one that creates tangible prosperity for its people." If Thailand can maintain this strategic momentum, it may no longer be merely a follower in the region, but rather a key player in shaping the future "ASEAN century."