Bangkok: Professor Somchai forecasts a prolonged economic conflict between the United States and China, as both nations aim to impede each other's growth. This shift from strategic allies to adversaries is expected to have significant repercussions on the global and Thai economies.

According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Somchai Pakphasanwiwat, an independent scholar in economics and politics, has stated that the ongoing economic tensions between the US and China show no signs of abating. The US has perceived China as a competitor or adversary since Donald Trump's presidency, marking a shift from a strategic partnership to rivalry. Trump's policy announcement on December 5, 2025, underscores a strategy to counterbalance China, focusing on security issues in the South China Sea and trade tensions, including high tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on advanced technologies.

Dr. Somchai elaborated on the global implications of this conflict, noting that the United States' view of China as a competitor stems from China's ambitions under President Xi Jinping's 'Chinese Dream,' which includes aspirations for historical retribution and the regaining of greatness by 2049. This ambition, combined with China's military and technological advancements, has prompted the US to act as a counterforce, though China's rapid progress presents challenges.

While a direct military confrontation is unlikely, the economic tensions are expected to affect global economies, contributing to a slowdown. However, some countries like Vietnam are adapting with high growth rates, whereas Thailand's growth remains modest. Dr. Somchai emphasized the need for countries to diversify trade and investment policies to mitigate reliance on any single nation, which could exacerbate trade competition and conflicts.

Thailand's economic challenges, according to Dr. Somchai, are primarily due to domestic structural weaknesses rather than the US-China conflict. The country must address its inability to compete globally and adapt to digital and AI-driven markets by restructuring and upskilling its workforce to harness technology for product development.