Bangkok: The escalating conflict resulting from attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran is not only a regional crisis but is spreading into a global problem that ASEAN cannot avoid. Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam, Executive Director of the ASEAN Foundation, pointed out that ASEAN has begun to take a clearer stance through the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' statement on March 4, which is considered a "bold" step in identifying the incident as an attack by the United States and Israel, amidst Western media outlets attempting to use alternative terminology.

According to Thai News Agency, one of the most worrying issues, yet one that wasn't frequently mentioned in the statement, is the "Hormuz Shock," or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piti analyzed that the impact wouldn't stop at just the soaring prices of oil and natural gas (which account for 20% of the global market), but would trigger a chain reaction leading to a global food shortage. Disruptions to the petrochemical industry would lead to a shortage of key "by-products" such as sulfur, which is used to produce sulfuric acid for the battery industry and to dissolve phosphate ores for fertilizer production. ASEAN, the world's "rice bowl," relies heavily on imported chemical fertilizers. A shortage of fertilizers would lead to a decline in agricultural production, resulting in the suspension of food exports for internal security and causing global inflation.

To overcome this crisis, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piti proposed that ASEAN shift from "defensive diplomacy" to utilizing existing mechanisms to their fullest potential. The ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) must be activated to utilize strategic oil reserves, and a Joint Procurement of oil and gas is proposed to increase bargaining power and reduce costs. It is necessary to open the Food Security Information System (AFSIS) and utilize the Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) jointly with China, South Korea, and Japan, as well as find new sources of fertilizer from Canada or South America to reduce the risk of dependence on any single party. ASEAN should leverage the strengths of each member, such as allowing Indonesia and Malaysia to use their relationships through the OIC to negotiate with the Muslim world, while Singapore and the Philippines help pressure the United States.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piti views this war as stemming from injustice and "bullying" of defenseless individuals. While the US may have won strategically in the initial stages, a protracted war against a long-prepared nation like Iran could strain the US due to limited resources. Ultimately, the world may enter a "21st-century strategic Three Kingdoms" scenario, a balance of power between the Global North led by the United States, the Global South led by China, and a Pax Islamica, a global Muslim union that may become stronger from this crisis. However, ASEAN needs to shift from being a follower in the old world order to becoming a middle power capable of managing risks and proactively fostering cooperation, such as creating an "ASEAN Humanitarian Fleet" to assist civilians and demonstrate genuine leadership in the region.