Bank profits expected for the first 9 months of 2023 will reach 186-191 billion baht.

Bangkok, Kasikorn Research Center expects that the policy interest rate direction and interest rates on loans of commercial banks that have increased in the past. It will help support the interest rate differential (Net Interest Margin: NIM) of the Thai banking system. to move up to the range of 3.14-3.18% in the 3rd quarter of 2023, sending bank profits for 3 quarters this year to reach 1.86-191 billion baht.

Kasikorn Research Center It is expected that the net profit of the Thai banking system in the first 9 months of 2023 should be achieved in the range of approximately 186-191 billion baht, while net interest income is expected to continue to grow. And it is an important support for operating results in the final quarter of 2023 because the interest rate differential (Net Interest Margin: NIM) of the Thai banking system is still likely to increase.

Kasikorn Research Center It is expected that the direction of the policy interest rate And the recent increase in commercial bank lending rates will help support the NIM of the Thai banking system. to move up to the range of 3.14-3.18% in the 3rd quarter of 2023, but must admit that The cost of deposit mobilization may also increase in 3Q2023.

Kasikorn Research Center It is expected that loans will continue to grow in a low range of 0.1-0.3% YoY in 3Q2023, while government bond yields will increase during the quarter. It may have an impact on recording the market value of assets in commercial banks' investment portfolios. and when combining the results of this factor It fits with the overall picture of fee and service income that is still slow. It may cause non-interest income in the 3rd quarter of 2023 to have a slower direction compared to the previous 2nd quarter of 2023.

Under the situation where interest rates remain stable at a high level But the economic outlook is still uncertain. Makes it possible to take care of the quality of the loan portfolio It is still an important ongoing problem for commercial banks. In the 3rd quarter of 2023, commercial banks will still see commercial banks monitoring and evaluating debt repayment ability of debtors. Help debtors restructure their debts Along with accelerating the management of non-performing loans (NPLs) in order to maintain the level of NPLs and reduce pressure on reserve expenses.

From the said picture Make Kasikorn Research Center It is expected that the proportion of NPLs of the commercial banking system It may remain stable or have a chance to adjust slightly to the range of 2.63-2.67% to total loans in the third quarter of 2023, while the ratio of provisions to loans (Credit Cost) may decrease slightly to the range of 1.25-1.29%. In the 3rd quarter of 2023, it is still considered a higher credit cost than during normal situations.

Kasikorn Research Center expects that net profits of the Thai banking system in the first 9 months of 2023 should be within the range of 186-191 billion baht, while net interest income is expected to continue to grow. And it is an important support for operating results in the last quarter of 2023 because the NIM of the Thai banking system is still likely to increase. It is still a problem that encourages commercial banks to adapt quickly. Therefore, the last quarter of 2023 will still see commercial banks' efforts to manage the NPLs problem while preparing liquidity. To be ready to support the demand for liquidity in the system that may increase following the government's economic stimulus measures.

Including ensuring that the growth of deposits is consistent with credit signals. Special fixed deposit campaigns may be launched continuously to mobilize liquidity. and compete with other financial products To be an option for depositors at the end of the year In addition, commercial banks You must prepare to adapt to deal with the criteria for responsible lending (Responsible Lending), which will come into effect in early 2024 as well. - Thai News Agency

Source: Thai News Agency