Beijing: Amidst the escalating conflict in the Middle East, many are watching China, a major power, to see what role it will play in supporting Iran. In conversations with Chinese friends, Dr. Paijit Wiboonthanasarn analyzed interesting issues from both the perspective of public sentiment and state strategy. He noted that the majority of the Chinese public agrees that they want to see China fully assist Iran. Currently, the world views Iran as a "victim" of abuse, leading to increased geopolitical and international political sympathy for the country. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are facing growing disapproval of their military actions.
According to Thai News Agency, despite public support, the Chinese government continues to pursue a proactive "on-the-table" diplomatic strategy, adhering to three key principles: respect the sovereignty of the state, non-interference in the internal affairs of foreign countries, and use diplomatic negotiations as the primary channel. China attempts to project an image of being a "world peace leader" by using global forums like the UN to express its views. However, China has also strongly condemned attacks by the United States and Israel in some cases.
The reasoning behind China's protective stance towards Iran is deeply rooted in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Iran is considered the "first piece of the puzzle" connecting Central Asia to the Middle East. If Iran falls under US influence, China's BRI strategy would be immediately stalled. Similarly, Russia needs Iran as a gateway to the southern seas. Both China and Russia perceive the US as attempting to "encircle" them by drawing in allies in Central Asia and the Middle East. Therefore, maintaining control over Iran is a matter of long-term strategic security.
China is also addressing the potential economic impact of the conflict by making remarkable preparations in two main areas: energy security and refinery adaptation. Inside sources indicate that China has strategic oil reserves distributed across its Central Asian neighbors, sufficient to last up to six months, significantly reducing the risk of energy shortages. Additionally, China is accelerating the upgrading of its oil refineries to accommodate oil from Russia should oil supply from Iran be cut off. This would help lower the energy costs for Chinese products and enhance their competitiveness.
Dr. Paijit believes this war is unlikely to end quickly as Trump claims, because Iran has a network ready to retaliate in various ways in the long term. Meanwhile, the US itself may face domestic pressure from rising oil prices and anti-war sentiment among Americans, which could affect the upcoming midterm elections.
While the world is in turmoil, China has emerged as a "safe haven" for foreign tourists and investors, reflected in rising tourist numbers and stable economic growth amidst the global crisis.