Bangkok: Everything is expensive. At a time of heightened global tension stemming from the confrontation between the United States and Iran, energy prices and production costs worldwide are directly impacted. For Thailand, Somchai Pannaratncharoen, honorary advisor to the Thai Wholesale and Retail Association, believes this crisis is not simply about oil prices, but also involves deeper factors inevitably affecting people's livelihoods. A 2 baht drop in oil price is merely psychological, not the solution.

According to Thai News Agency, although the government attempted to reduce the refining margin by 2 baht per liter, this had almost no effect on the prices of consumer goods. This is because oil prices had already soared far beyond the point where any small remediation could compensate for the loss. More concerning is that oil is only one part of the cost; packaging, particularly the plastic pellets used to make pouches, bottles, and bags, is a major variable whose price has doubled and shows no sign of decreasing in line with oil prices.

Somchai analyzed that we are facing waves of rising prices that are coming in succession. The first wave involves Tier 1 products that still have existing stock gradually adjusting prices according to new transportation and packaging costs. The second wave, expected in May, will see products manufactured with new production costs entering the market, significantly raising prices. The third wave, anticipated in June, will reach its peak, accompanied by deflation, as people lack purchasing power because their income doesn't keep pace with the cost of living.

One of the key issues that Mr. Somchai pointed out is the changing consumption habits of Thai people, which have become overly reliant on processed food and 24-hour convenience stores. The nationwide single-price marketing system disadvantages people in the provinces and prevents them from developing local industries to compete with the central region, because they have to bear the hidden transportation costs embedded in the price of goods, just like people in Bangkok.

In order to help the people and the country overcome this crisis, Mr. Somchai proposed guidelines such as encouraging communities to return to consuming locally produced goods and food, reducing dependence on industrially produced food from central areas. He also suggested policy austerity measures like promoting the use of trains for freight and passenger transport to reduce costs and limiting the opening and closing times of convenience stores to conserve energy.

Furthermore, he advocated for improving government programs by reforming the "Blue Flag Shops" or "Pracharat Card" programs to focus on truly impoverished individuals and involving farmers as direct sellers to ensure genuine money circulation at the grassroots level. The crisis this June will be a major test. Saving money and shifting from a reliance on convenience to self-reliance may be the necessary "new normal" for Thais, in order to build resilience when the traditional economic structure can no longer support everyone.