Bangkok: A fierce economic war is shaking the global economy! Oil prices are soaring to $100, impacting Thailand's livelihoods and risking a prolonged crisis lasting two years.

According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, revealed on the Good Morning ASEAN program on MCOT News FM 100.5 that the unrest from the war is creating an "economic shock" through five main channels, affecting the global value chain and directly impacting people's livelihoods.

The first channel is an energy shock, where crude oil prices surged to $100 while liquefied natural gas (LNG) hit $2.88. This impacted upstream industries across the board, including electricity, transportation, petrochemicals, and steel, as energy is a major cost component. Furthermore, 20% of the world's energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing the risk.

However, unusual signs have also been found in the country, such as the restriction of oil supplies, which may be related to hoarding. This reflects that the impact is not solely due to the direct effects of the war, but also to psychological factors and exploitation within the system. Therefore, it is the government's duty to strictly investigate and severely punish those involved.

For Thailand, over 60% of its energy needs depend on natural gas. If unrest affects gas separation plants, it could cause prolonged disruptions to production, as machinery cannot be shut down immediately, and repairs could take six months to a year. The impact would also ripple through related industries such as petrochemicals, packaging, and pharmaceuticals. We're already seeing signs of this in public hospitals, which are limiting medication dispensing to only two months' supply from the previous three to six months, increasing the financial burden on the public.

The second impact is on logistics. Transportation routes are disrupted, forcing cargo ships to detour, increasing transit times by 10-14 days per shipment. This pushes up freight, energy, and insurance costs, affecting key Thai industries like automotive and electronics, and risking disruptions similar to the Rare Earth crisis.

The third channel is the Commodity Super Cycle, which drives up commodity prices, especially fertilizers that are dependent on natural gas. A shortage of natural gas would impact global agricultural production, particularly in ASEAN, a major food producer. Meanwhile, a sudden switch to organic fertilizers is difficult and could lead to reduced yields in the first 3-5 years.

The fourth channel is the financial sector, including rising insurance costs, sanctions, and currency volatility, as well as the trend of using a "petro-yuan" instead of the dollar, resulting in higher currency management costs and a polarization of the global financial system.

Finally, there are long-term consequences, potentially lasting 6 months to 2 years. Global geopolitics will change, Middle Eastern countries may lose confidence in the United States, and adjust their energy, trade, and security policies.

Furthermore, if the situation escalates to the point of using nuclear weapons, it could lead to World War III, a severe crisis from which no country would benefit.

Associate Professor Dr. Piti emphasized that all parties must exercise restraint at this time, because if the war escalates, the entire global economic system could collapse simultaneously.