Expect the trend of crude oil prices to decrease..worried that the world economy will slow down.

Bangkok, Thai Oil expects the price of West Texas crude oil this week to move within the range of 68-75 USD per barrel, while Brent crude oil will move within the range of 73-80 USD per barrel. ..worried that the world economy will slow down Thai Oil Public Company Limited expects that the crude oil price situation (22 - 26 Jan. 2024) is likely to decrease. After being pressured by concerns about the picture of economic growth in the world's main economies, namely the United States and China, on the United States side The market is starting to feel uncertain about the US Federal Reserve. Will reduce interest rates as reported in the Dot Plot of the last meeting. While China, which has the second largest economy in the world Facing deflation after the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index continued to contract in December 2023. In addition, the latest World Bank report indicates that the global economy will grow at a slower pace this year. However, the market is still supported by the cold snap in t he United States, which has had an impact. causing supply to tend to tighten up In addition, the US crude oil supply that tends to decrease After the volume of oil production from shale and the number of drilling rigs decreased. coupled with the geopolitical conflict situation in the Middle East region that still tends to intensify from time to time Market Watches Cold Snap in North Dakota It is the largest oil producing area in the United States. This has affected oil production capacity by 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day, which is more than 50% of production capacity in normal conditions. Meanwhile, weather forecast reports indicate that in late January, temperatures in the lower 48 states of the United States will will be warmer than usual These factors put pressure on demand for heating fuels. US oil supply There is a tendency to decrease. After the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that oil production from shale oil (Shale Oil) in February 2024 will decrease by 0.12% compared to t he previous month. The decline marked the fifth straight month of declines as Baker Hughes reported the number of U.S. crude oil and gas rigs drilling. For the week ending Jan. 12, the number of drilling rigs decreased by two to 619, and the total number of drilling rigs was still 20% lower than the same period last year, or 156 fewer. The market is also keeping an eye on the tension situation in the region. Middle East after the Houthi rebels continued their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region. Most recently, it launched a missile attack on a large U.S. cargo ship, the Gibraltar Eagle, even though the U.S.-led coalition had earlier attacked it. and the UK has attacked Houthi strongholds in Yemen. Meanwhile, Iranian forces have attacked Israeli Mossad headquarters in Iraq and Iranian opposition groups in Syria and Pakistan. For the oil price situation last week (15 - 19 Jan. '24), the price of West Texas crude oil increased by 0.73 USD per barrel to 73.41 USD per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil adjusted. increased by 0.27 USD per barrel to 78.56 USD per barrel, while Dubai crude oil prices closed on average at 78.80 USD per barrel after supply tended to tighten. from the extremely cold weather in North Dakota, the largest oil producing region in the United States. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand in 2024 will increase to 1.24 million barrels per day. And the OPEC group expects world oil demand to increase by more than 2.25 million barrels per day. In addition, the US crude oil inventory numbers for the week ending January 12, 2024, it decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 429.9 million barrels, more than analysts had expected to decrease by only 0.3 million barrels, which is another factor that came to support the market. However, the market Under pressure after China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded only 5.2% in 4Q23 year-on-year. This is lower than the figure that analysts expected at 5.3%, which may cause China to issue additional economic stimulus measures in various forms. Source: Thai News Agency