Bangkok: Next week, market participants are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements, Thailand's August export data, and ongoing developments in the Middle East. Kasikorn Research Center has highlighted these as key areas of interest, along with the anticipated meeting between leaders from China and the United States. The Thai baht is projected to fluctuate between 33.00-33.60 baht per dollar, and the SET index is expected to range from 1,545 to 1,610 points.
According to Thai News Agency, the Thai baht experienced a decline from the beginning to the middle of the previous week, marking its lowest in 1.5 months at 33.43 baht per dollar. This depreciation followed the Federal Reserve's meeting, which indicated a continuation of its monetary tightening policy due to persistent US inflation above target levels. The Fed adjusted its interest rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, aligning with market expectations, and hinted at a potential additional rate hike before the year's end. The baht saw a slight recovery towards the week's conclusion, influenced by increasing gold prices and decreasing oil prices. On September 18, 2026, the baht closed at 33.33 baht per dollar, weaker compared to 33.04 baht per dollar the week prior. Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks amounting to 5,192 million baht, while the Thai bond market witnessed a net outflow of 7,552 million baht between September 14-18.
For the week of September 21-25, 2026, Kasikorn Bank anticipates the Thai baht to trade within a range of 33.00-33.60 baht per US dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center emphasizes monitoring Thailand's August export figures, the Middle East situation, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump on September 24. Significant US economic data to watch includes August's new home sales, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment/inflation expectations, the preliminary September PMI, and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, market attention will be on China's LPR interest rate announcement and preliminary September PMI figures for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK.
The Thai stock market experienced a downturn throughout last week, although it showed some recovery towards the end. Initial to mid-week trading was impacted by sell-offs in technology stocks due to company-specific issues, international tech stock trends, and Middle Eastern tensions following reports of a Houthi rebel attack on Saudi Arabia, which could affect oil exports. The market rebounded after the Federal Reserve's meeting outcomes provided clarity on US interest rate directions and expectations of extended domestic stimulus measures. On September 18, 2026, the SET index closed at 1,584.15 points, decreasing by 1.27% from the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 69,427.41 million baht, down 0.44%. The mai index also decreased by 1.58% to close at 223.77 points.
For the upcoming week (September 21-25, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. predicts that the Thai stock index will find support at 1,560 and 1,545 points, while resistance levels are expected at 1,595 and 1,610 points. Kasikorn Research Center identifies key factors to observe, including the Federal Reserve officials' statements, Thailand's August export figures, the Middle East situation, and foreign capital flows. Important US economic indicators include the preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI indices, August's new home sales and durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims. Other significant international economic factors include China's September LPR interest rate setting, and the preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI indices for the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan.