FPO cuts Thai GDP in 2023 to grow at 2.7%

Bangkok, FPO cuts Thai GDP in 2023 to grow at 2.7%, expecting stimulus measures such as digital money and others to affect the economy. Estimated GDP growth in 2024 at 3.2%.

Mr. Pornchai Teerawet, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), Ministry of Finance Spokesperson Announcement of the results of the Thai economy (GDP) projection for 2023 that it is expected to expand at 2.7% (forecast range of 2.2-3.2%) from the original expectation of 3.5% growth after exports tended to be negative 1.8%. from the slowdown of trading partners' economies and public sector investment is stable. This is due to the delay in the budget preparation process for 2024. In 2024, the economy is expected to expand at 3.2% per year (forecast range 2.2-4.2%), supported by private consumption. and export sector Meanwhile, the tourism sector continues to recover.

For important factors that will affect the Thai economy which must be followed closely, such as

1) Global geopolitical conflicts in various regions that may limit the growth of the Thai economy in the next period, such as the fighting situation in Israel and Gaza that may affect energy prices to increase. The protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and strategic competition between China and the United States, which could affect global supply chains and international trade. It is necessary to closely monitor the role and attitude of each country.

2) Fluctuations in the global financial market due to strict monetary policies of main trading partners and problems with financial institutions abroad. Especially the United States and the European Union.

3) The Chinese economic situation is experiencing economic slowdown. Affecting exports and the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector.

4) El Nino phenomenon that may cause drought in 2024, affecting farmers' income.

“November 2023, Ministry of Finance Budget Bureau The National Economic and Social Development Office (NESDB) and the BoT must begin discussing guidelines for preparing the 2025 budget and the overall picture of economic growth in that year. To get a clearer picture of the economy In the early to mid-year of 2024, there will be government economic stimulus measures to help. Including a digital top-up measure of 10,000 baht and other measures to take care of improving the quality of life of the people. But how much will it help to expand the economy? You'll have to look at the spending conditions. Target group And how much money will go into the economic system? There is also investment in the public sector and state enterprises. Meanwhile, exports should recover better. These factors will affect the economic expansion from the current level to reach its potential level. In order for GDP to expand by 1%, there must be 400 billion baht of money circulating in the economy,” Mr. Phonchai said

Source: Thai News Agency