Bangkok: Old beliefs don't work. Currently, global climate conditions, including those in Thailand, are facing extreme fluctuations, ranging from record-breaking heat to unseasonably heavy rainfall. These phenomena are no coincidences, but rather signals of a crisis that Dr. Royol Chitradon defines as a global shift.
According to Thai News Agency, Dr. Royl believes that the root cause of the problem stems from rising ocean temperatures, which in turn leads to increased humidity. This results in more intense and heavy rainfall than in the past. Furthermore, previously predictable natural cycles like El Ni±o and La Ni±a, which historically alternated every five years, are now highly volatile, sometimes even alternating within a single year. This indicates increased influence from the Arctic and Indian Oceans, resulting in stronger winds from the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. When these winds collide with currents from the South China Sea, it causes atmospheric stagnation.
When the air is completely still, the heat produced by urban activities has no way to dissipate but accumulates in place, causing temperatures to rise significantly. This still air phenomenon is also directly related to the PM2.5 dust problem, as there is no wind to disperse the dust from the area. Interestingly, these dust particles also act as condensation nuclei. When the accumulated heat causes the wind to rise, the PM2.5 particles are lifted and become the nuclei of raindrops, resulting in the heavy rainfall we see in the dry season in northern and northeastern Thailand.
One of the major obstacles, as Dr. Royl emphasized, is relying more on belief than data. In the past, we might have believed that La Ni±a years would have heavy rainfall, or El Ni±o years would have drought. However, in the era of climate change, these statistics are often no longer accurate. For example, in 1998, a La Ni±a year, there was less rainfall, and in 2023, an El Ni±o year, rainfall was not as low as predicted. Furthermore, the top-down management system, which attempts to use a single plan to solve problems in all areas, is a significant obstacle because each region typically has diverse and different opportunities.
Dr. Royl proposed a solution through three main factors. First, innovative energy utilization by using solar power systems in conjunction with water pumps to create "water batteries" would reduce electricity costs and lessen reliance on coal. Second, the application of data science and mathematics to improve the efficiency of water and traffic management is crucial for adapting to the new era. Third, optimizing logistics to reduce empty runs in transportation could drastically reduce diesel fuel consumption.
However, Dr. Royl also stated that Thailand must accept the reality that weather patterns will never return to their former state. We need to shift our development model from a traditional command-based approach to one that utilizes knowledge, data, and the potential of communities to sustainably cope with the global warming crisis.