Bangkok: Amid global economic volatility, a major warning signal was issued by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, who cautioned about soaring global public debt, which could trigger a bond market crisis in the near future.

According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Sompop Manarangsarn discussed the alarming overall picture of global debt, stating that data from 2025 indicates global public debt will reach $111 trillion, a figure close to the world's GDP. If private and household debt are included, the total debt would exceed $300 trillion, or approximately three times the world's GDP. The most worrying aspect is that the United States alone has public debt of $38-39 trillion, representing one-third of global public debt, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%, significantly higher than the global average of 94.7%.

Although Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world at 236%, Associate Professor Dr. Sompop analyzes that Japan's situation may not be as severe as that of the United States. This is because the majority of Japan's debt is internal debt, borrowed by the government from citizens and financial institutions within the country. In contrast, the United States has a foreign debt of $9 trillion, which is equal to Japan's total public debt. This forces the United States to bear interest burdens at a level higher than its national security budget for many years.

Geopolitical factors are a major catalyst for worsening the situation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the conflict with Iran have driven up oil prices and caused inflation. This high inflation has forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates, consequently increasing the U.S. government's interest payments. It is estimated that within the next 10 years, the U.S. could pay up to $2 trillion in interest annually.

Donald Trump's populist policies and tax cuts for the wealthy under the "Big and Beautiful" slogan are seen as contributing to the deteriorating US fiscal situation. Furthermore, the US faces internal conflicts regarding the appointment of the Fed chairman and interventions in monetary policy, which may make resolving economic problems more difficult. While the US struggles to maintain high import tariffs to offset its deficit, China is pursuing a contrasting policy by reducing tariffs for many nations, such as granting tariff exemptions to 53 African countries, in order to project a more "friendly" global leadership role in the eyes of its trading partners.

However, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sompop believes that the US debt crisis is not a distant issue, as it directly impacts oil prices and inflation globally, including Thailand, which has to borrow money to address the emergency caused by rising oil prices. Therefore, the management of US public debt is a top risk factor that the world must monitor, because if the US bond market collapses, the impact will inevitably spread throughout the global economy.