Bangkok: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between the United States and Iran, the world is entering a new wave of volatility that may be more severe and prolonged than before. Associate Professor Dr. Danuwat Sakarik offers an interesting perspective, stating that the current situation is no longer just an oil crisis, but is becoming an "everything crisis."

According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Danuwat estimates that the current uncertainty has a greater than 50% chance of leading to a global recession. However, even more worrying is stagflation, a condition where the economy slows down, unemployment rises, while prices surge due to soaring inflation. This crisis differs from normal economic cycles because it results from geopolitics that severely disrupts supply chains. When the cost of oil, the primary fuel for plastics, chemicals, transportation, and all manufacturing, increases, it creates a domino effect on consumer goods prices worldwide.

We are entering another "New Normal" era, which is not just about COVID-19, but about a permanent change in the pricing structure and production costs. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Danuwat points out a paradigm shift in supply chain management, from focusing on "efficiency" or timeliness to focusing on "resilience" and "security" instead. Each country must prioritize risk diversification and ensuring sufficient stockpiles of goods and energy.

Solving this problem is far more difficult than during the COVID-19 pandemic. While COVID-19 was a short-term shock with medical solutions like vaccines, war directly impacts production costs. Governments worldwide are facing a "policy trap"; raising interest rates to control inflation would only exacerbate the recession. Furthermore, fiscal space in many countries, including Thailand, is dwindling due to extensive borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing public debt close to its limit. Therefore, implementing large-scale relief or economic stimulus measures is challenging and must be done cautiously to maximize effectiveness.

For Thailand, Dr. Danuwat believes it is very difficult to see GDP growth exceeding 2% this year due to the high cost of living and economic stagnation expected for at least the next 3-6 months, possibly extending into the third quarter. What businesses and the public need to do is adapt urgently, prepare short-term and long-term plans, and recognize that we are in an era where volatility is the new normal.

However, the world in 2026 is facing a "perfect storm" encompassing war, energy, and supply chain crises. Management in this era requires more than just monetary or fiscal policy; it demands strategic management that comprehensively addresses the security of all resources for long-term survival.