Bangkok: Know in advance and adapt accordingly! Why wars that seem distant have become an "invisible tax" that Thais must pay, and the golden opportunities in the GCC that cannot be overlooked. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran, Israel, and the United States is entering a critical turning point that experts call "conflict transformation." This is no longer just about armed conflict, but a battle over economic structures with global repercussions.
According to Thai News Agency, the conflict has evolved beyond traditional warfare to a strategic economic battle. Professor Fairos Yubensuk highlights that the situation is characterized by missile exchanges and negotiations rather than full-scale war, with economic implications being the primary focus. There are three main issues at the center of these negotiations: energy, trade routes, and finance and sanctions.
Energy remains a critical concern, as a significant portion of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Red Sea crisis has disrupted trade routes, forcing shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal and incurring increased transit times and costs. Furthermore, discussions around lifting sanctions on Iran could have profound effects on global capital flows.
Iran has adopted a strategy of "increasing costs for opponents," leveraging its strategic position to pressure oil-importing countries like Thailand. This has led to higher consumer prices and squeezed business profits, effectively acting as an unexpected global tax.
The crisis has prompted a shift in global economic thinking from "efficiency" to "resilience." GCC countries are investing in alternative routes to bypass conflict zones, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates building pipelines to the Red Sea and Fujairah, respectively. Oman has emerged as a key strategic location due to its stability and access to the Indian Ocean.
For Thai entrepreneurs, the shifting economic landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. As global power dynamics become multipolar, with the GCC countries at the helm, Thai businesses are urged to adapt swiftly. The ongoing developments in Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 projects underscore the region's economic potential despite the conflict.
In this evolving economic environment, the ability to manage risk and maintain economic stability will be crucial. As Professor Fairos notes, future success will depend not on military strength but on strategic economic positioning and the alignment of interests.