Bangkok: The government is optimistic that the "Half-Price Plus" scheme will stimulate the economy, with a recovery anticipated in the third quarter.

According to Thai News Agency, the chief advisor to the Economic Forecasting Center of the Thai Chamber of Commerce highlighted the need to address Thailand's GDP growth, which remains below 2% and lags behind other ASEAN countries. The advisor emphasized the effectiveness of the "Half-Price Plus" policy in boosting consumer spending and anticipates an economic recovery in the upcoming quarter.

Mr. Thanawat Pholvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, commented on the Bhumjaithai Party's efforts in government formation. He stated that regardless of the party's alliance choices, there are no indications of delays that might affect the 2027 budget or the disbursement of the 2026 budget. He also noted the public's expectations for the new government to enhance purchasing power, suggesting that the "Half-Price Plus" project, which covers over 20 million people, would be an effective solution, outperforming efforts to stimulate the tourism sector.

The tourism sector faces challenges, with a notable decrease in Chinese tourists. While Thailand previously welcomed up to 10 million Chinese tourists, numbers have dwindled to 4.3 million. However, recent months have seen a recovery, with tourist numbers rising to 3 million, marking a significant weekly increase. Additionally, Thailand's baht exchange rate, currently at 31.1-31.5 baht per US dollar, poses competitiveness challenges. The country risks falling to fourth place in ASEAN if economic growth remains at 2-3% while Malaysia maintains 4.5%-5% growth.

Mr. Thanawat estimates the new government will form around May, with economic stimulus measures like the "Half-Price Plus" scheme potentially requiring initial funding of 40-50 billion baht. He anticipates a swift government formation, with the Bhumjaithai Party likely securing key economic ministries to facilitate smooth administration.

Regarding election issues, particularly the protests in Chonburi Province, Constituency 1, within the Eastern Economic Corridor, Mr. Thanawat believes these are unlikely to impact investor confidence. From an economist's perspective, there is no justification for a nationwide re-election, although local re-elections might occur as per election laws.