Bangkok: Dr. Chaichan Charoensuk, former president of the Thai National Shippers Council (TNSC), revealed on the Good Morning ASEAN program on MCOT News FM 100.5 that overall Thai exports in the first quarter were still good, especially in January-February which grew by 17%, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. However, the situation has entered a critical "turning point" due to the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, which has lasted for more than a month and has had a wide-ranging impact worldwide.
According to Thai News Agency, a key game-changer is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial strategic route for the transportation of goods and energy. Currently, the Jebel Ali port in the United Arab Emirates, a major regional distribution hub, has been affected by the attacks, forcing its partial closure. This has severely disrupted Thai maritime shipping, as the port is a vital link to various countries in the Middle East.
Although air freight is still feasible, it has volume limitations, as sea freight typically can handle significantly more goods. This results in Thai exporters facing constraints in both volume and cost.
Meanwhile, logistics costs have skyrocketed, with freight rates combined with various additional fees such as War Risk Surcharge, Bunker Surcharge, and Emergency Surcharge increasing by at least four times. This forces businesses to carefully assess the cost-effectiveness and delivery time, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is high-risk and inevitably prone to delays.
This situation has also led many countries to adjust their shipping strategies. For example, South Korea has chosen to bypass the Hormuz route and instead go to Saudi Arabia. While Thai exporters still have options such as the Jeddah port in the Red Sea, this port has limitations in terms of size and container handling capacity compared to Jebel Ali or Dammam ports, and therefore cannot fully replace the existing route.
Thailand's exports to the Middle East are valued at approximately 300 billion baht, or 4% of total exports, representing a significant proportion. Key products include automobiles and parts, food and pet food, and electrical appliances. This market is considered a net importer with high growth potential but faces limitations from the current situation.
Furthermore, the impact spreads in a domino effect to the energy sector, as the Middle East is a major global oil producer. Rising oil prices directly affect Thailand's energy costs, as well as the petrochemical and chemical industries, and ammonia and fertilizers, which are crucial to Thai agriculture.
Looking ahead, Thai businesses are advised to adapt quickly by reducing their reliance on high-cost, distant markets and focusing on closer markets such as ASEAN, China, India, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. These markets can compensate for the short-term decline in traditional markets, especially for food products where Thailand has strong potential.
At the same time, the situation in the Middle East should be closely monitored, as after the war ends, that market is likely to see a resurgence in demand, especially for food products. These could become a key "rising star" if Thailand can manage costs and supply chains efficiently.