Bangkok: The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) forecasts that Thailand's GDP growth will fall below 2% in 2026, marking the lowest rate in three decades.
According to Thai News Agency, this prediction comes as the nation grapples with a range of economic challenges, including the significant 8.2% appreciation of the Thai baht last year. The JSCCIB is calling for more rigorous monitoring of currency, gold, and digital asset trading to mitigate these challenges.
Mr. Poj Aramwattananon, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of Thai Chambers of Commerce, expressed concerns following a meeting with the Joint Committee of the Three Private Sector Institutions (JCC). He noted that Thailand's economy would experience growth of less than 2% for the first time in 30 years, excluding crisis periods. The nation is expected to record the lowest growth rate in the region due to existing structural vulnerabilities such as a large informal economy, high household debt, and a lack of competitiveness in the global market. Fiscal constraints and challenges from numerous regulations and disconnected data further compound these issues. Other factors include the impact of previous natural disasters, cybercrime, illicit capital flows, and risks from delayed budget processes.
The JSCCIB is particularly concerned about the Thai baht's appreciation, which is the second highest in the region. This appreciation exerts pressure on exports, akin to added tariffs on businesses, thus eroding economic conditions, especially for exporters. The committee emphasizes the need for regulatory agencies to closely monitor currency movements, particularly in relation to gold prices and digital asset trading in Thailand. Furthermore, the JSCCIB supports governmental efforts to improve transparency and understanding of capital flows to prevent these from undermining the country's competitiveness and real economy.
Mr. Poj highlighted the linkage of the baht's appreciation to its peg with gold and digital assets, advocating for a systematic approach to capital flows. Mr. Kriengkrai Thianukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), added that the baht's appreciation, compared to the Vietnamese rupee's depreciation, poses a significant threat to Thailand's competitiveness. He stressed the importance of resolving the strong baht issue to maintain the country's economic standing.
Global economic uncertainty is expected to rise in 2026 due to geopolitical factors, including US interventions in Venezuela, which contribute to a polarized global economic landscape. This situation is impacting global growth projections, with US tariffs expected to further affect Thai exports, excluding electronics. As a result, Thailand must adapt swiftly to these evolving global conditions.