Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center indicates that next week the market will be watching December inflation figures, foreign fund flows, and global gold prices. Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) revealed that by 2025, the Thai baht will appreciate by 8.5%, while the Thai stock index will fall by 10.04%. Next week, the market will focus on December inflation figures, foreign fund flows, Asian currencies, and global gold prices. The KRC projects the baht to trade within a range of 31.00-31.60 baht per US dollar, with support levels for the Thai stock index at 1,240 and 1,230 points, and resistance levels at 1,270 and 1,285 points.
According to Thai News Agency, next week (January 5-9, 2026), Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within a range of 31.00-31.60 baht per US dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include Thailand's December inflation figures, foreign fund flows, Asian currency movements, and global gold prices. Important US economic data includes the preliminary January 2026 consumer sentiment and inflation index, the ISM/PMI manufacturing and services indices, private sector employment data, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for December 2025, housing starts for September-October 2025, and weekly jobless claims. In addition, markets are awaiting December manufacturing and services PMI indices for Japan, China, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the Eurozone's December inflation rate.
Looking ahead to the year 2025 (January 2 - December 30, 2025), the Thai baht appreciated by 8.5%, closing at 31.41 baht per US dollar from 34.10 baht per US dollar at the end of 2024. The Thai baht weakened in early 2025 amid concerns about the potential impact on the Thai economy from Donald Trump's trade policies. Positive US economic data also delayed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, the baht gradually strengthened during the remainder of the year, driven by three main factors: 1) a weaker US dollar, aligning with the gradual reduction in US interest rates and concerns about the impact of tariffs on the US economy; 2) record-high gold prices on a multiple-time basis, with a correlation between gold prices and the USD/THB exchange rate projected at -0.82 in 2025; and 3) a current account surplus of US$14.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, benefiting from accelerated exports prior to the implementation of US import tariffs.
Towards the end of 2025, the Thai baht appreciated significantly, reaching its strongest level in 4 years and 9 months (the strongest since March 2021) at 31.01 baht per dollar. This occurred in line with the surge in the spot price of gold in the global market, which soared to an all-time high near $4,550 per ounce.
For the Thai stock market next week (January 5-9, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts support levels for the Thai stock index at 1,240 and 1,230 points, while resistance levels are at 1,270 and 1,285 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include Thailand's December inflation figures and the direction of foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes manufacturing and services PMI indices, ADP private sector employment data, non-farm payrolls, the December unemployment rate, and weekly jobless claims. Other important international economic factors include the December PMI indices for the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan; the December consumer price index and November producer price index for the Eurozone; and the December consumer and producer price indices for China.
For the period between January 2 and December 30, 2025, the SET index closed at 1,259.67 points (as of December 30, 2025), down 10.04% from 1,400.21 points at the end of 2024. The SET Index reached its highest point of the year at 1,399.35 points on the first trading day of 2025 before fluctuating downwards until mid-year amid several negative factors. These included expectations of a slowdown in Fed interest rate cuts, concerns about the impact of US tax policy (even though the US temporarily suspended retaliatory tariffs in April to allow for negotiations), the escalation of the trade war, the tense situation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and domestic political factors following the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The Thai stock index hit its lowest point in 5 years and 3 months at 1,053.79 points in late June 2025 before recovering subsequently.
Factors supporting the gradual recovery of the Thai stock index in the third quarter of 2025 include the Federal Reserve's (Fed) initial interest rate cuts in September, the trade agreement between Thailand and the United States resulting in lower import tariffs comparable to neighboring countries, and the smooth formation of a caretaker government. However, the upside potential for the Thai stock index is limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, following the Fed's signal of no further interest rate cuts in 2026. Furthermore, market concerns remain regarding the outlook for the Thai economy after the floods in southern Thailand and the tense situation along the Thai-Cambodian border. In addition, domestic political developments following the dissolution of parliament and the expected general election in early 2026 must be closely monitored.