Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center indicates that next week, attention should be directed towards gold prices, foreign fund flows, and the ongoing US shutdown. The baht is projected to trade within a range of 32.50-33.00 baht per dollar, while the Thai stock index is expected to see support levels at 1,270 and 1,245 points, with resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,315 points.
According to Thai News Agency, the baht showed fluctuations last week, initially strengthening to 32.40 baht per US dollar after the Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.50%. Despite this initial strengthening, the baht weakened further as the market speculated that a slowing economy might lead to future rate cuts. It reached its weakest level in over two months at 32.82 baht per US dollar before slightly recovering to close at 32.70 baht per US dollar by the end of the week.
Kasikornbank predicts that in the upcoming week, the baht will continue to trade within the 32.50-33.00 baht per dollar range. Key factors identified by Kasikorn Research Center for monitoring include global gold prices, the flow of foreign funds, the US shutdown, and statements from Fed officials. Notably, the Fed’s Beige Book report is unlikely to be impacted by the shutdown. Additionally, significant international economic figures to watch include China’s September economic data, August industrial production from Japan and the Eurozone, and September inflation figures from the Eurozone.
In the Thai stock market, last week saw fluctuating movements due to a lack of new supporting factors and negative September inflation figures, which raised concerns about deflation risks. The Thai stock index hit an eight-and-a-half-month high of 1,317.88 points during the week but fell sharply towards the end of the week. This decline was influenced by trading supervision measures on shares of a major parts manufacturer and a major airline due to concerns over board independence. Consequently, the SET Index closed at 1,286.98 points, marking a 0.51% decrease.
Looking ahead to the next week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. anticipates that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,270 and 1,245 points, with resistance levels at 1,300 and 1,315 points. Key factors to monitor, as assessed by Kasikorn Research Center, include developments related to the US shutdown and foreign capital flows. Other international economic indicators of note are August industrial production figures from the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan, as well as September economic data from China, including exports and price indices.