Kasikorn Research Center Reduce GDP in 2024 to 2.8%

Bangkok, Kasikorn Research Center Reduced the forecast for the Thai economy in 2024 to 2.8% due to contraction in demand and production. High household debt But there is support from export recovery. Over 36 million tourists return to Thailand. If Digital Wallet is in time this year, GDP may return to 3.1%. Mr. Burin Adulwattana, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Kasikorn Research Center Company Limited, revealed that the world economy in 2024 is likely to expand at the same level as 2023. World trade should return to expand well. The global interest rate trend will gradually Declined as inflation is being lowered to the target of central banks around the world. China still faces unresolved real estate problems. Including the economy that is still weak. As a result, domestic demand has decreased and Chinese enterprises have continued to lower product prices to maintain market share. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) assesses that the economy is still expanding well. and has sent a signal to red uce policy interest rates this year Financial markets expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June 2024. The Thai economy in 2024 is likely to grow lower than expected by the Kasikorn Research Center. has lowered the Thai economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.8% from 3.1% due to domestic demand whose momentum is still weakening. Including the manufacturing sector that continues to shrink. and high levels of household debt This is reflected in domestic car sales that have continued to shrink for several months in a row. However, if the digital wallet policy It will happen within this year. It may result in Thailand's GDP returning to the level of 3.1%. In 2024, the Thai economy will be supported by the return of government budget disbursement and merchandise exports that are expected to expand by 2% and the number of foreign tourists that is likely to grow to 36 million this year. Kasikorn Research Center expects that the BoT has ended the upward interest rate cycle at 2.5% and that the BoT is lik ely to cut interest rates approximately 2 times in 2024. The estimated inflation rate for the year is at the level of 0.8%. In the context of world trade, trade protectionist policies are still intense. Carbon taxation trends from around the world and technology like AI that is having an impact around the world As for Thailand, which is facing many structural problems, it is necessary to urgently find new machines to drive the Thai economy through the Kasikorn Research Center. It is seen that in driving the matter of becoming an EV production center, a data center center or attracting foreign investment in other forms of investment. There is a key. Thailand must have enough clean energy at a reasonable price. To attract economic activities in the Green Economy to change the structure of the Thai economy. 'To be a data center, a large amount of electrical energy is required. which Thailand has sources of clean energy production from solar energy There is a large land area. Therefore, it is seen that this wil l be an advantage in producing electrical energy at a cheaper price than neighboring countries. But action must be taken quickly,' Mr. Burin said. Source: Thai News Agency