Bangkok: Kasikornbank indicates that markets will be volatile next week, with attention focused on the Middle East and the Federal Reserve. The Kasikorn Research Center suggests that the markets will be closely monitoring the uncertainty in the Middle East, capital flows, and signals from the Federal Reserve. The Thai baht is expected to fluctuate within the range of 32.10-33.10 baht per dollar, after experiencing its weakest level in 10 months this past week. The Thai stock market is projected to move within a support range of 1,410-1,430 points and a resistance range of 1,465-1,490 points.

According to Thai News Agency, last week, the Thai baht experienced fluctuations, weakening to its lowest point in 10 months at 33.06 baht per dollar, mainly due to ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the baht briefly recovered due to the purchase of risky assets in Asia in hopes of a potential easing of the situation, it weakened again as the week progressed. This mirrored high global oil prices and continued uncertainty in the Middle East. Additionally, inflation concerns in the US supported the dollar, potentially limiting further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the baht closed at 32.92 baht per dollar on Friday, weaker than the previous week. Foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks totaling 2,011 million baht, and there was a net inflow of 13,265 million baht into the Thai bond market.

For the week of March 30 - April 3, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within a range of 32.10-33.10 baht per US dollar. The Kasikorn Research Center highlights several key factors to monitor, including Thailand's February economic and financial report, developments in the Middle East, the direction of global oil prices, foreign fund flows, and signals regarding interest rate trends from Federal Reserve statements. Important US economic data to watch includes February job openings and retail sales figures, the consumer confidence index, manufacturing and services PMI/ISM indices, March non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as private sector employment figures and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, the market is anticipating March manufacturing PMI figures from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK, along with Eurozone March inflation figures.

Last week, the Thai stock index fluctuated in response to the situation in the Middle East. Early in the week, the SET Index fell below 1,400 points, influenced by regional trends and selling pressure from foreign and domestic institutional investors, driven by the US's threat to attack Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. However, the market saw a mid-week recovery after the US postponed the attack, and signs of negotiations emerged, coupled with news that Iran allowed Thai oil tankers to pass through normally. This development boosted technology, energy, and banking stocks. The index later pared its gains towards the end of the week due to conflicting news about the negotiations, reflecting continued uncertainty, despite net buying by foreign investors. On Friday, March 27, 2026, the SET closed at 1,447.05 points, up 0.98% from the previous week, with an average trading volume of 65,096.46 million baht, up 0.96%. The mai index closed at 217.47 points, down 0.73%.

For the upcoming week (March 30 - April 3, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,430 and 1,410 points, while resistance levels are at 1,465 and 1,490 points. The Kasikorn Research Center advises keeping an eye on statements from Federal Reserve officials, the tense situation in the Middle East, and the direction of foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes February retail sales, ISM and PMI manufacturing and services indices, March non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, and weekly jobless claims. Other significant international economic factors include Japan's February industrial production, the Eurozone's preliminary March consumer price index, and March PMI indices from several countries.