Bangkok: A conflict in the Middle East is triggering global economic risks: high energy prices, inflation, and a shift in power dynamics. Conflict in the Middle East is once again becoming a major risk factor for the global economy. As tensions escalate between Iran, Israel, and the United States, and with the potential for further conflict, this development affects not only security but also sends shivers down the global economic system, particularly the highly sensitive energy market.

According to Thai News Agency, Dr. Supavud Saichue analyzed that whenever the Middle East faces conflict, global oil prices tend to rise immediately. This is because the region is a major energy producer and a crucial transportation route. Any risk to production or transportation would quickly impact supply and put downward pressure on prices.

The impact of rising energy prices is not limited to the energy sector but spreads to the overall economy, affecting production costs, transportation, and the cost of living for citizens. This can lead to inflationary pressures and slow economic recovery in many countries.

At the same time, the nature of warfare has changed significantly. Military technologies such as drones and low-cost weapons have become important tools capable of inflicting effective damage, while defense systems cost many times more. This results in a 'cost imbalance,' a major factor contributing to prolonged conflicts.

This imbalance means that modern warfare is not measured solely by military strength, but by the ability to bear the long-term economic costs. It has become a strategic war with profound impacts on the global economic system.

In the financial markets, increased uncertainty has led to volatility. Investors are likely to reduce risk and shift towards safer assets, while central banks in many countries face challenges in managing economic policy amidst inflationary pressures and economic slowdown.

Although not directly involved in the conflict, Thailand is affected through energy prices and its ties to the global economy. Rising oil prices could impact the cost of living, business costs, and overall economic stability.

Ultimately, the conflict in the Middle East is not just an international political event, but a significant variable that could shape the direction of the global economy in the coming period, which all countries need to monitor and prepare for carefully.