Bangkok: Next week, keep an eye on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Thai exports, as they will determine the direction of the baht and stocks.
According to Thai News Agency, the Thai baht weakened last week in line with gold prices and a stronger dollar, closing at 31.19 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the SET index surged more than 3%, nearing 1,500 points, driven by foreign buying. Looking ahead, the market will be watching the Bank of Thailand's MPC meeting, export figures, and capital flow trends. The research center estimates the baht's trading range at 30.90-31.60 baht per dollar, with support for the Thai stock index at 1,465-1,440 points and resistance at 1,500-1,510 points.
Kasikorn Research Center reported that the Thai baht weakened at the beginning of last week, in line with the decline in global gold prices, despite Thailand reporting better-than-expected Q4 2025 GDP growth. Meanwhile, the US dollar gradually recovered after better-than-expected US economic data, including durable goods orders, housing starts, industrial production, and jobless claims.
Furthermore, the minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting reflected that some officials did not rule out further interest rate hikes if inflation remained high, leading the market to lower expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future.
However, towards the end of the week, the Thai baht slowed its depreciation after gold prices rebounded due to safe-haven buying amid tensions between the US and Iran. On Friday, February 20, 2026, the baht closed at 31.19 baht per dollar, weaker than 31.08 baht per dollar the previous week. Meanwhile, foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks totaling 11,041 million baht but net sellers of bonds totaling 8,630 million baht.
In the Thai stock market, the SET index rose for most of the week, driven by continued net buying from foreign investors and expectations of domestic political stability. Support also came from better-than-expected Q4 2025 GDP figures and an upward revision of the 2026 GDP forecast to 2.0%. Bank stocks were boosted by dividend yields, the energy sector reacted positively to rising global oil prices, and some electronics stocks reported better-than-expected earnings. The index reached a 1-year, 4-month high of 1,496.61 points before closing the week at 1,479.71 points, up 3.45%. The average daily trading volume was 73,837.87 million baht.
For the week of February 23-27, markets are watching several key factors, particularly the outcome of the MPC meeting on February 25, as well as January export figures, Thai economic and financial reports, and foreign capital flows. At the same time, markets are awaiting US economic data such as the producer price index, private sector employment figures, and jobless claims, along with China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) announcement and Eurozone inflation data, which could be crucial variables influencing capital flows in the coming period.
Kasikorn Bank estimates the baht's trading range at 30.90-31.60 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities sees support levels for the Thai stock index at 1,465 and 1,440 points, and resistance levels at 1,500 and 1,510 points.