Myanmar’s Three-Phase Elections Face Scrutiny Amidst Civil War Crisis

Bangkok: Myanmar's three-phase election process is drawing significant attention as the country grapples with ongoing civil unrest and international observation. The elections, intended as a resolution to the conflict persisting since 2021, involve 330 cities and are divided into three phases. The first phase in 102 cities occurred on December 28, 2025, the second in 100 cities on January 11, 2026, and the final phase in 63 cities is slated for January 25, 2026. However, 65 cities, representing 13% of the 55 million population, are unable to hold elections due to ongoing intense fighting.

According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam from Chulalongkorn University highlighted the criticism surrounding the election's transparency and inclusiveness. Critics argue that the election is neither free nor fair, notably pointing out that the National League for Democracy (NLD), the previous election winner, was disqualified under a new law mandating high funding and membership requirements. Additionally, there are allegations of coercion of citizens and artists to join campaigns, and several security zones remain inaccessible. Despite these concerns, supporters argue that the elections represent the best opportunity to resolve the prolonged conflict, with 57 political parties participating and a historical 18% of candidates being female.

Strategically, Myanmar's geographic positioning as a link between Southeast Asia and South Asia and as a gateway to the Indian Ocean for China makes it significant. The country is rich in natural resources, such as natural gas, rare earth minerals, gold, and forests. As a result, major powers like China and India have recognized the election process, dispatching observers to monitor the proceedings. Thailand, sharing a border and security cooperation with Myanmar, is also involved, particularly in addressing transnational crime and scammer gangs potentially relocating operations to unelected border regions.

Economically, a new government, likely led by the military-backed Union Solidarity Party (USDP), is anticipated to form by mid-2026. While investors from Western nations, Japan, and South Korea remain cautious, Thai businesses familiar with Myanmar see potential for expanding trade. However, these businesses need to stay aware of security challenges on routes controlled by ethnic minorities and monitor Thai government policies on international collaboration against border area scammers to sustain its international reputation and trustworthiness.