Bangkok: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has issued a recommendation for tighter regulation of online quick loan lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs), which have reached 1.3 trillion baht, constituting 9.4 percent of total loans. This recommendation comes amid growing concerns over "medical inflation," with healthcare costs in Thailand expected to surge by 10.3 percent by 2026.
According to Thai News Agency, NESDC Secretary-General Mr. Danucha Pichayanant revealed that household debt decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2025 by 0.29 percent, totaling 16.31 trillion baht. This decline was attributed to banks adopting a more cautious approach to lending, which has kept the household debt-to-GDP ratio stable at 86.8 percent. However, the ability to repay debt worsened across all loan types, with personal loans overdue for more than 90 days reaching 1.3 trillion baht.
The NESDC recommends regulating loans obtained through mobile applications and buy-now-pay-later models, as these are readily accessible and pose risks of future NPLs. It is advised that service providers join the credit bureau and establish a joint debt ceiling. Middle-to-high income earners are also at increased risk of loan defaults, with data from SCB EIC indicating that 21.0% of those earning over 100,000 baht per month face repayment issues similar to lower-income groups. Proactive measures, such as issuing reminders before loan due dates, are suggested to enhance financial discipline.
The overall unemployment rate in Thailand has decreased to 0.70 percent, equating to 280,000 unemployed individuals. However, the number of virtually unemployed people has seen a slight increase, primarily within the agricultural sector. The employment rate for 2025 is projected at 99.1 percent, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 0.81 percent. Key areas of concern include enhancing foreign direct investment links with Thai businesses and addressing job security issues arising from artificial intelligence technologies.
Medical inflation remains a significant concern, with healthcare costs projected to rise globally by 10.3 percent in 2026. In Thailand, medical inflation is expected to reach 10.8 percent in 2025, significantly outpacing the general inflation rate of 0.7 percent. Contributing factors include investment in modern medical technology, competitive compensation for medical personnel, high pricing for medicines and medical supplies, and increased use of medical services by insured individuals.
Private hospitals in Thailand are investing heavily in modern medical technology to improve treatment efficiency and competitiveness, which leads to higher service costs. Additionally, high compensation packages to attract specialist personnel contribute to rising hospital service costs. The pricing of medicines and medical supplies in private hospitals is influenced by structural costs, unlike public hospitals where prices are centrally regulated. The increase in health insurance claims due to unnecessary medical services also drives medical inflation, prompting the OIC and the insurance industry to implement co-payment criteria to limit such services.