“Phakorn” passes the baton to “Assadet”, sees signs of fundflow continuing to flow in until the end of the year

'Pakorn' passes the baton to 'Assadej', sees the trend of FED cutting interest rates, resulting in fund flows into Emerging Markets with good fundamentals, but it must be watched that if it is cut sharply, it may signal an economic recession. As for domestic factors, both clear politics - listed company performance - Vayupakdi - ThaiESG support the Thai stock market. Mr. Soraphol Tulayasathien, Deputy Managing Director, Head of Corporate Strategy Planning, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), revealed the overall stock market situation in August 2024. The SET Index closed at 1,359.07 points, an increase of 2.9% from the previous month, in line with other stock market indices in the region. When compared to the end of 2023, the SET Index decreased to only 4.0%. The industrial groups that performed better than the SET Index when compared to the end of 2023 were the Technology group, the Consumer Goods group, and the Agriculture and Food Industry group. The average daily trading value in SET and mai was adjuste d to 46,028 million baht, down 21.4% from the same period last year, but increased by 21.1% from the previous month, resulting in the average daily trading value in the first 8 months of 2024 at 44,404 million baht, down 22.2% from the same period last year. In August 2024, there were no new listed companies trading on the SET and mai. Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of the Stock Exchange of Thailand at the end of August 2024 was 14.9 times, higher than the average of the Asian stock market at 12.9 times. The Historical P/E was 16.4 times, higher than the average of the Asian stock market at 15.1 times. The dividend yield at the end of August 2024 was 3.50%, higher than the average of the Asian stock market at 3.16%. For the futures market (TFEX) in August 2024, the average daily trading volume was 498,404 contracts, an increase of 31.2% from the previous month, mainly due to the increase in SET50 Index Futures and Single Stock Futures. In the first 8 months of 2024, the average daily trading volume was 444,557 contracts, a decrease of 18.3% from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures. Mr. Soraphol mentioned that there are foreign factors that support the growth of the SET Index from the annual meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) in Jackson Hole at the end of August, where Mr. Jerome Powell revealed his increasing confidence that the US inflation rate is slowing down to the 2% target and that it is time for the FED to start reducing interest rates, causing the market to expect that the FED will reduce interest rates for the first time at the meeting this September. As a result, US stocks have a chance to adjust their base after increasing significantly in the previous period, with capital likely to move to stocks and bonds in Emerging Markets with good fundamentals. However, we must keep an eye on the FED's interest rate cut, whether it will be by 0.25% or 0.50%, because if it is cut a lot, it will be a signal of concern about the US economic recess ion, especially the labor market. If there are no problems, it should be reduced gradually. Meanwhile, we must keep an eye on the Chinese economy, even though it has not affected the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand at this time. Domestic factors also have positive factors that support investor confidence, such as clearer Thai politics after the election of a new prime minister, stronger-than-expected Thai economic figures, the draft 2025 budget that has passed the Senate, and strong performance of Thai listed companies in Q2/2024. In addition, Thai listed companies have continuously turned to share buybacks as a tool to manage the company's liquidity. Share buybacks also help signal to investors that executives are confident that the current share price is undervalued by the company's true fundamental value and stimulate demand for shares in the market. In addition, analysts predict that there will be more liquidity flowing into the Thai stock market during the rest of the year after the cabinet approved the adjustment of tax measures to promote investment for Thailand's sustainability in the Thai ESG fund and the clarity of the sale of Vayupak 1 Fund, which has a guaranteed minimum return, which will attract investor interest and help promote overall confidence in the capital market. "The fund flow started entering Thailand last month, but it stayed in the bond market at around 10 billion baht. However, in September, it started flowing back to the Thai stock market. The factors mentioned, including the recent Thailand Focus event, helped create interest for investors, especially in the health, food, and service groups. It is expected that it will continue to have a positive effect on the market until the end of the year," said Mr. Soraphol. Mr. Phakorn Peetathawatchai, Director and Managing Director of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, mentioned about the fund flow that flowed out a lot last year, but this year, we see the direction of flowing back in, see the rebound, the performance of listed comp anies from the recovering economy, and see the direction getting better and better. But it still needs to be monitored continuously in the long term because there is still uncertainty. As for the industries that benefit from the lower interest rates, they are the banking, leasing, and businesses that are expanding their businesses. However, the capital market will be stable if there is a balanced growth of the investor base in all groups, including preparation to cope with the rapid changes in technology in order for the capital market to grow sustainably. Ready to forward this matter to Mr. Atsadej Kongsiri, the new director and manager of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, who also attended the briefing on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, who will officially begin his duties on September 19, 2024. -516 Source: Thai News Agency