Bangkok: Associate Professor Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, has highlighted the potential consequences of the recent dissolution of parliament by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. During an interview on the “Share the News” program on MCOT NEWS FM 100.5, he elaborated on the implications under the 2017 Constitution and existing election laws. The current political scenario creates a dual challenge for parties: winning the election and succeeding in forming a government.
According to Thai News Agency, past political events suggest that the party with the most votes might not necessarily be the one to form the government. For instance, in 2019, although the Pheu Thai Party secured the majority of votes, it was the Palang Pracharath Party that ultimately formed the government. A similar situation arose in 2023 when the Move Forward Party, now known as the People’s Party, came in first place, yet the Pheu Thai Party took the reins of government. Dr. Yutthaporn assessed that a comparable outcome might occur in the upcoming by-election expected on February 8th. The Bhumjaithai Party is projected to have a strong chance of leading the government formation despite the People’s Party potentially securing the most votes.
Dr. Yutthaporn noted that the Bhumjaithai Party holds a significant advantage due to its robust voter base and its stance on constitutional amendments. Meanwhile, the People’s Party faces challenges over its cross-party voting practices and unmet MOU promises. Although the Pheu Thai Party’s popularity is on the rise, it needs to reorganize internally and evaluate its potential prime ministerial nominee to gain wider public support.
Security concerns, particularly those stemming from the Thai-Cambodian border situation, could influence the electoral process. Dr. Yutthaporn mentioned that the Election Commission might delay voting in some regions. If the border situation worsens, there is a possibility of the election being nullified nationwide, similar to the scenario in 2014.
Key elements to watch include potential party switching and alliance transformations by MPs, the nomination of prime ministerial candidates by various parties, and the resolution of the case against 14 MPs from the People’s Party. These factors are poised to significantly shape the political landscape ahead of the upcoming prime ministerial election.