Bangkok: SCB EIC indicates that the Thai economy is recovering in a K-shaped pattern, projecting a growth of 2.2% in 2026. However, they are closely monitoring the momentum of AI investments and expressing concerns about a potential new round of competition.
According to Thai News Agency, SCB EIC assesses Thailand's economic recovery as a K-shaped pattern, with a focus on AI's momentum. It forecasts Thailand's economy to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, but remains concerned about a potential new war that could stagnate the economy. Mr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Chief Research Officer at SCB EIC, revealed that this growth is largely driven by the global AI investment cycle, positively impacting electronics exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the digital and technology sectors. The recovery is showing a K-shaped pattern, with strong growth in investment and exports relying heavily on imports, resulting in income and employment benefits being concentrated in industries related to electronics, technology, and FDI.
Attention is currently focused on the new conflict in the Middle East, which signals that oil prices could reach $110 per barrel, affecting Thailand. The government is advised to avoid fixing oil prices to prevent economic stagnation, as the oil fund is currently in deficit by almost 90 billion baht.
In 2026, merchandise exports, particularly in electronics, remain key drivers, benefiting from AI investment. Private sector investment is expanding in line with FDI, especially in electronics and digital infrastructure industries. However, these businesses have a high proportion of imports, limiting their growth from fully creating added value, employment, and domestic income. Many households and SMEs face slow income recovery, high debt burdens, tight liquidity, and difficulty accessing credit, leading to a projected slowdown in private consumption in the year's second half.
SCB EIC projects that the Thai economy will grow below its potential in 2027, despite support from FDI in electronics, AI, digital infrastructure, and government investment in energy transition. The challenge is to transform new investments into greater domestic value-added activities by attracting high-value activities, developing technology and workforce skills, and connecting foreign companies and large corporations with Thai SMEs. This approach aims to integrate Thai entrepreneurs more into new supply chains while ensuring a broad and sustainable recovery by assisting those who have yet to adapt.