Bangkok: The SET index fell 10 points this morning before rebounding slightly, while the baht weakened to near 33 baht. Thai stocks opened 10 points lower, following regional trends, before rebounding slightly. A defensive strategy is recommended. Meanwhile, the Thai baht weakened to near 33 baht, appreciating the stronger dollar and concerns that the Middle East is driving up oil prices. Analysts suggest the baht could test 33-34 baht/dollar in the short term.

According to Thai News Agency, the Thai stock market opened lower this morning (March 30), following the downward trend in regional markets. The index opened at 1,436.41 points, down 10.94 points, before recovering slightly to 1,440.04 points at 11:40 AM, down 7.01 points or 0.48%.

Mr. Pichai Lertsapongkit, Managing Director of the Securities Business Division at Innovest X Securities, revealed on the "Investment Minute" program on Channel 9 MCOT HD that the main factor pressuring the market stems from the conflict in the Middle East, particularly the attacks in the Red Sea and the crucial straits that are vital oil shipping routes between Asia and Europe. This has caused market concerns about energy stability and driven up oil prices. These events are considered beyond control. Although it is expected that the new cabinet, to be appointed and sworn in this week, will have more authority to manage the cost of living, intervention in oil prices is limited due to high global market prices. Meanwhile, retail prices for both diesel and gasoline in Thailand are nearing 60 baht per liter, similar to neighboring countries. Therefore, assistance measures may need to focus on vulnerable groups such as transportation, taxis, trucks, and fishing.

While Asian stock markets fell sharply this morning, reflecting concerns over geopolitical situations and energy prices, the Thai stock market received support from upstream energy, petrochemical, and refinery stocks, which benefited from higher oil prices, limiting the index's downside. Intraday support is estimated at around 1,425 points.

For the short term, oil prices are likely to remain at high levels even if the situation improves in the future, as energy infrastructure in the Middle East has been damaged and will take time to restore. This means oil prices are likely to stay above $80 per barrel. Therefore, a defensive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on energy stocks such as PTTEP, Banpu, and Bangchak. Caution should be exercised in the tourism and hotel sectors, which still face risks from rising energy costs and slowing consumer spending.

Poon Panichpibul, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai Global Markets, Krungthai Bank, revealed that the Thai baht opened this morning (March 30) at 32.98 baht per dollar, weakening from last week's closing rate of 32.87 baht. The baht is moving in a sideways-up pattern and approaching a key resistance level of 33 baht per dollar. This is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the continued rise in crude oil prices stemming from concerns over the escalating and prolonged situation in the Middle East, which is putting pressure on regional currencies, including the Thai baht.

Overall, it is estimated that the Thai baht continues to face downward pressure and has the potential to test the 33-34 baht per dollar level within the next month, despite volatility in both directions depending on developments in the Middle East and capital flows in the market, particularly transactions by exporters and foreign investors which may partially slow the depreciation. Meanwhile, domestically, the market is awaiting the release of the March PMI manufacturing index and the business confidence index. The estimated 24-hour trading range for the baht is 32.80-33.15 baht per dollar.