Bangkok: Next week, the Thai baht is expected to fluctuate between 30.70 and 31.30 baht per US dollar, according to Kasikorn Research Center. This movement is likely supported by gold prices and foreign fund flows. Simultaneously, Thai stocks will be monitored for domestic inflation, political developments, and US economic data, with support levels estimated at 1,500 and 1,470 points.
According to Thai News Agency, last week, the Thai baht strengthened to 30.97 baht per dollar, its strongest level in over three weeks. This strengthening was attributed to rising global gold prices and inflows of foreign capital into both the Thai stock and bond markets. Despite a brief weakening mid-week following a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee, high gold prices and positive fund flows limited the decline. International factors to watch include the US trade tariff policy after the Supreme Court's ruling on tariff measures, with President Donald Trump announcing a 10% import tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. The baht closed last Friday at 31.08 baht per dollar, stronger than the previous week.
Next week, from March 2-6, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within the range of 30.70-31.30 baht per US dollar. Key factors to monitor include Thailand's February inflation data, domestic politics, foreign fund flows, Asian currency movements, and global gold prices. Important US economic data includes the ISM and PMI indices for manufacturing and services, February's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, export and import price indices, January's factory orders, the Fed's Beige Book report, and weekly private sector employment and jobless claims. Additionally, markets are anticipating February's manufacturing PMI data from China, Japan, the UK, and the Eurozone, along with the final Q4 2025 GDP figures and February inflation rate for the Eurozone.
In the Thai stock market last week, the SET Index surged, propelled by news of interest rate cuts and political developments, surpassing 1,500 points and reaching 1,545.31 points, its highest level in almost two and a half years. It then partially corrected towards the week's end due to profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the MSCI Rebalance, closing at 1,528 points, up more than 3% from the previous week.
For the upcoming week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,500 and 1,470 points, and resistance levels at 1,545 and 1,555 points. The Kasikorn Research Center will monitor factors such as Thailand's February Consumer Price Index, domestic political developments, US tax policy issues, and foreign capital flows. Important US economic data to watch includes the ISM and PMI indices for manufacturing and services sectors, February's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, export and import price indices, January's factory orders, the Fed's Beige Book report, and weekly private sector employment and jobless claims. Additionally, the market awaits February's manufacturing PMI indices for China, Japan, the UK, and the Eurozone, as well as the final Q4 2025 GDP figures and February inflation rate for the Eurozone.