Lamphun: A looming "Super El Ni±o" is threatening to exacerbate the hardships facing Thai farmers already struggling with soaring fertilizer and fuel prices. In the northern province of Lamphun, longan growers are the latest to feel the heat as drought conditions begin to bite. Paiboon Chaisit, a 70-year-old farmer managing 12 rai of orchards, says that in over 50 years of farming, this year has been particularly difficult. The intense heat and dry weather have exhausted the trees, nearly doubling the time it usually takes for them to fruit while resulting in a significantly lower yield.

According to Thai News Agency, while longan prices have improved, Paiboon noted that the rising costs of inputs-fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel-have forced farmers to increase their investments just to stay afloat. While irrigation and groundwater currently remain available for his plot, nearby orchards are already seeing their water channels run dry. Farmers fear that if the drought intensifies, many orchard owners will face certain financial losses.

The Director of the Northern Meteorological Center confirmed a clear transition from La Ni±a to El Ni±o in Thailand, noting that while rainfall will decrease, it is unlikely to be as severe as the historic drought of 2016. Rainfall is expected to be slightly below the 30-year average, with potential dry spells occurring between mid-June and mid-July. Experts are currently urging farmers outside of irrigation zones to secure their own water sources and consider pivoting to short-cycle, low-water-use crops to mitigate the risk of crop failure.

Despite the warnings, regional water management officials remain cautiously optimistic due to healthy reservoir levels. The Regional Irrigation Office 1 reported that major dams across Chiang Mai, Lamphun, and Mae Hong Son are currently holding more than 65% capacity. This is a stark contrast to a decade ago; for instance, the Mae Kuang Dam currently sits at 64% capacity compared to just 9% during the 2016 crisis.

While the current water supply appears sufficient for this year's cultivation, officials warn that these environmental signals are a critical wake-up call. The shifting climate patterns serve as a start for Thai farmers to urgently adapt their practices. As natural disasters and dry spells threaten to become increasingly frequent and severe, long-term preparation is becoming the only viable path for the country's agricultural backbone.