Bangkok: Food exports from Thailand are forecasted to contract by 7.3% in 2026, driven by soaring energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties impacting the global economy.
According to Thai News Agency, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), in collaboration with the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Food Institute, has projected that the value of Thai food exports will be around 1.4 trillion baht in 2026, following a 10.5% decline in the first two months of the year.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), alongside the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Food Institute, has identified rising energy costs as a significant factor affecting the outlook for Thai food exports. Conflicts in the Middle East have led to higher shipping rates and war risk insurance premiums, with global oil prices expected to increase due to risks associated with shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has resulted in increased transportation costs across the food supply chain, affecting everything from fertilizers and raw materials to processing and distribution.
Dr. Thongdee Pala, Chairman of the Food and Beverage Industry Group at FTI, emphasized that energy and transportation costs are major pressures on Thai food exports, particularly in the volatile first half of the year. Dr. Wisit Limluecha, Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, noted that exports were valued at 202.1 billion baht in the first two months of 2026, a contraction attributed to weak global demand, a strong baht, and import restrictions by countries like Indonesia.
Ms. Paiyada Hanchaisukskul, Director of the Food Institute, highlighted that the conflict in the Middle East has affected exports through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipments to the GCC, MENA markets, and re-exports from Europe. Products heavily reliant on the Middle Eastern market, such as canned tuna and rice, are at high risk. Meanwhile, tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have resulted in significant losses in exports to Cambodia.
The private sector suggests that the government should manage energy costs by controlling oil prices and utilizing the Fuel Fund mechanism to alleviate impacts on production and logistics. Despite these challenges, the Thai food industry is adapting by focusing on processed and future foods with high added value, expected to increase in export value significantly by 2025.
Adapting to maintain competitiveness involves developing food innovations, adopting renewable energy sources, and using bioplastic packaging to manage costs and mitigate risks from global energy price fluctuations. The second quarter is expected to see the sharpest contraction in exports before a potential recovery later in the year.