Thai Industrial Confidence Index Slows as Exports Decline, But Recovery Forecasted: ‘Quick Big Win’ Measures Strengthen Investment and Combat Grey Market

Bangkok: Mr. Kriangkrai Thienukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries, revealed that the Industrial Confidence Index for October has experienced a decrease, registering at 87.3, down from 87.8 in September. This decline is largely attributed to reduced exports of durable goods, specifically combustion-powered vehicles and air conditioners, to the Australian and US markets, along with a fall in wood product orders from China and Malaysia.

According to Thai News Agency, flooding in various regions has adversely affected production within the agricultural processing industry, contributing to a sustained contraction in border trade. Additionally, the continuous growth of imports from China has intensified competition for Thai manufacturers. Other significant concerns include the global economic climate, impacting 63.1% of industries, and fluctuating exchange rates, affecting 48.1% of the sectors.

Despite these challenges, there are positive indicators such as declining diesel and gasoline prices, alongside domestic spending spikes driven by the vegetarian festival and peak tourism season. The Thailand-Cambodia peace agreement, coupled with governmental economic stimulus initiatives like the “Half-Half Plus” and “Travel Good, Get Back” schemes, have buoyed the index to 93.5, up from 91.8 the preceding month. These improvements are a testament to the effectiveness of Quick Big Win strategies, which include resolving household debt through Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and providing SME loans guaranteed by the Thai SME Bank with a minimum credit limit of 50 billion baht. Furthermore, trade discussions between Thailand and the United States, alongside de-escalating trade tensions between the US and China, have contributed positively to the global economic environment.

In response to these developments, the government has put forth urgent proposals, including accelerating the disbursement of the SME procurement budget within 30-45 days and reducing contract guarantees. Additionally, they aim to disburse at least 33% of the 2026 budget in the first quarter to maintain liquidity within the economic system. Emphasizing the importance of eradicating grey business practices, the government supports the Zero Corruption initiative across six areas to foster transparency and bolster investor confidence.