Bangkok: The escalating tension in the Middle East, particularly concerning President Trump's threats towards Iran, has led to a significant increase in global oil prices, with a notable impact on Thailand's diesel prices, which have now surpassed 50 baht per liter.
According to Thai News Agency, the Thai government is taking emergency measures to address the situation, including convening urgent meetings to review the oil price structure and employing "special powers" to urge refineries to contribute their "windfall profits" to the national fuel fund. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Phuree Sirisunthorn from Thammasat University's Faculty of Economics suggests that the government should investigate actual costs rather than depending solely on Singapore prices to offer clearer information to the public.
Despite these efforts, the sustainability of relying on the oil fund to maintain price levels is limited. If domestic prices align fully with the global market, there could be significant public backlash due to the increased financial burden.
The looming threat of an "energy lockdown" after the Songkran festival is a growing concern, as oil reserves might not last until June without significant conservation efforts. Dr. Phuree warns of a potential scenario where Thailand could face a "real lockdown," not due to a pandemic, but because of fuel scarcity, akin to the situation in South Africa. In such an event, "fuel rationing" measures might be necessary, prioritizing critical services such as ambulances, goods transport, and public security.
In the long term, Dr. Phuree advocates for tax reform and a revamp of the energy strategy. He recommends revising the universal excise tax and subsidy system, suggesting a targeted approach to encourage energy conservation. Additionally, Thailand should transition its energy strategy from general security to "strategic security," considering future clean energy shifts that may lead to dependencies on mineral supply chains, posing similar geopolitical risks.
Ultimately, this crisis challenges the resilience of the Thai population. The government's role is crucial in transparently communicating the situation, enabling the public to understand the gravity of the issue and collaborate on energy conservation efforts to prevent a scenario where there's "no fuel to fill up the tanks."