Bangkok: The world is undergoing a significant transformation in its international order, moving away from an era dominated by multilateral rules and institutions towards one where "power" and "national interests" are increasingly prominent. Dr. Supavud Saichue presents this shift as a profound restructuring of the global system, necessitating a serious adaptation by all nations, including Thailand.
According to Thai News Agency, the past global order emphasized universal rules, free trade, and international cooperation. However, major powers are now prioritizing their strategic interests, using trade, technology, and security policies as competitive tools rather than for mutual balance. This transition weakens global rules, as influential nations with economic, technological, and military power gain greater control over global trends. Medium and small-sized countries, like Thailand, must seek to establish their own significance within this new global framework.
Dr. Supavud highlights that the global economic center has shifted to Asia, now a key player as a production base, supply chain hub, technology hub, and large consumer market. The intensifying competition among major powers in Asia, whether in trade, technology, or geopolitics, sets a new context for international cooperation. Major powers expect clear strategic roles from their allies, a challenge Thailand must inevitably face.
Reflecting on Thailand's economy, Dr. Supavud notes that its fragility is not just due to external factors but also long-standing structural problems, such as slower growth rates, declining industrial competitiveness, and a reliance on exports to limited key markets. Additionally, non-tariff trade barriers, particularly environmental and carbon-related measures, are becoming the new norms in global trade, impacting Thai businesses, especially SMEs that face capital and technology constraints.
Dr. Supavud stresses that Thailand cannot meet the challenges of this new global landscape with short-term policies or temporary economic stimulus measures. A serious structural reform is necessary, involving energy system changes, enhancing the role of clean energy, upgrading manufacturing and agricultural sectors, and developing workforce skills suited for the modern economy.
In a world where power once again takes precedence over rules, countries unable to adapt risk losing their competitiveness and bargaining power on the global stage. This shift in the global order serves as a critical warning for the future of the Thai economy, urging immediate and strategic adaptation.