Bangkok: Thanaporn Sriyakul, an academic and political analyst, has provided a detailed analysis following the parole of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
According to Thai News Agency, Thanaporn suggests that contrary to popular belief, Thaksin is not stepping away from the political arena. Instead, he is expected to adopt more cautious and potent tactics, enhancing his influence without directly confronting adversaries.
Thanaporn outlines three strategic developments that are anticipated to unfold in the coming period. Firstly, he predicts a resurgence of the Red Shirt movement, signifying a return to the color-coded political factions that have historically shaped Thai politics. This resurgence will be characterized by a more cohesive mobilization of Red Shirt supporters, aiming to leverage their influence through strategic voting rather than public protests.
Secondly, Thanaporn highlights a potential shift in the Senate's political dynamics. Following the "big boss's" loss in the 2024 Senate election, there is speculation of a change in affiliations within the Senate. This shift is seen as a retaliation move, reminiscent of the political maneuvers during Thaksin's tenure as Prime Minister, where influential affiliations within the Senate were pivotal.
Lastly, Thanaporn foresees a strategic alliance forming within Parliament, uniting the Orange, Green, and Red factions. This coalition aims to counterbalance the Blue faction, particularly on legislative matters that the Bhumjaithai party does not support, such as the Clean Air Act draft. Through this cooperation, the allied factions aim to secure a majority of 252 votes, enabling them to pass legislation and potentially amend the constitution.
Thanaporn concludes that Thaksin's current period of reduced public visibility is akin to a strategic retreat, where he is consolidating power and influence to make a more formidable return. This period of seclusion is seen as a time of preparation, likened to training, with the expectation that Thaksin will re-emerge with increased strength and political clout.