Bangkok: Thammasat University academics warn that soaring chemical fertilizer prices mean a meal costing 120 baht is no exaggeration. They warn of severe impacts in September and suggest three solutions.
According to Thai News Agency, Thammasat University academics are urging the government to quickly declare a neutral stance on the international stage and to proceed with negotiations with Russia and China to increase imports of chemical fertilizers to alleviate shortages in the Thai agricultural sector caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They warn that this could lead to a chain reaction causing food prices to rise after April 2026, with the full impact expected in September 2026. They recommend farmers adapt their farming methods, utilize microbial innovations, and create a sustainable agricultural ecosystem.
Associate Professor Dr. Woraphat Wachirayakorn, a lecturer in Agricultural Technology at the Faculty of Science and Technology, Thammasat University, revealed that in the past, Thailand imported chemical fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, totaling more than 40% of its total imports. Therefore, given the current situation, the government needs to address three issues simultaneously in three phases.
This includes urgent measures such as clearly demonstrating neutrality on the world stage, similar to Switzerland, and proceeding with negotiations with Russia and China to increase the quota for chemical fertilizer imports. It also involves diversifying sources of fertilizer and raw materials, establishing a fertilizer reserve system for critical planting seasons, and closely monitoring actual stock levels to mitigate price risks and supply shortages. This approach aligns with the current global market risks interconnected with energy, transportation, and fertilizers. These measures will help alleviate the problem of chemical fertilizer shortages resulting from the inability to import through the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz problem has exacerbated the price of chemical fertilizers in Thailand, which were already affected by the Russo-Ukraine war. The inability to import chemical fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz has caused prices to rise sharply, from 600 baht per sack to 2,000 baht per sack. If this continues, the prices of vegetables, rice, and palm oil (which in turn will drive up diesel fuel prices) will all increase. It is estimated that a meal could cost 120 baht. The impact will begin to be seen in May 2026 and will be fully felt before September 2026.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Woraphat further stated that although the Ministry of Commerce has measures such as the "Half-Price Fertilizer" scheme, the "Green Flag Fertilizer" program, or the "Good Soil Card" to help reduce costs for farmers, the question is whether they will actually be effective. For example, the Minister of Commerce recently stated that Thailand currently only has enough chemical fertilizer stock to last until April 2026. Therefore, how much fertilizer will be sufficient for farmers under these measures And importantly, if this fertilizer stock is old and expired, using it would be of little to no help.
'If farmers are going to use this fertilizer, they need to check the expiration date on the bag carefully and make sure it's not old stock. Fertilizer deteriorates in quality daily after production. If it's been more than six months since production, its effectiveness will be around 80%. After one year, it will drop to less than 50%, and after two years, it will be less than 10%,' Assoc. Prof. Dr. Woraphat said.
In addition to increasing imports from Russia and China and diversifying import sources, farmers who have already used chemical fertilizers this season may inevitably have to wait to use them again or make adjustments as best they can. However, in the next season, they should switch to an ecological farming system to help reduce chemical fertilizer use. This involves combining traditional wisdom with microbial innovations that help fix and recycle all 14 essential plant nutrients from the soil in a form that plants can actually use. These microorganisms play a crucial role in increasing the availability of nutrients in the soil, such as nitrogen fixation, phosphorus dissolution, and stimulating root development, etc., resulting in more efficient nutrient uptake by plants.
'This approach helps reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, minimizes soil nutrient loss, and improves crop quality in terms of both completeness and consistency. At the same time, it helps restore soil fertility in the long term. Many universities have the knowledge and technology ready to transfer to farmers nationwide. If implemented in conjunction with short-term fertilizer supply policies, it will help Thai farmers overcome the crisis and upgrade to a sustainable production system in the future,' Assoc. Prof. Dr. Woraphat stated.
In the medium term, the government should prioritize building domestic fertilizer production capacity in areas where it is feasible, such as fertilizer blending, tailoring formulas to specific soil and crop types, upgrading blending plants, and consolidating purchasing power among cooperatives and community enterprises to lower costs and reduce dependence on a few large importers. Following this, the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives and related agencies should seize this opportunity to transform the role of the National Fertilizer Company Limited into a central mechanism for ensuring national fertilizer security. This should be achieved by allowing farmers and community enterprises nationwide to hold shares and participate in the supply chain. Once the system is robust and community-level entrepreneurs have sufficient capacity, consideration should be given to amending relevant laws, such as the Fertilizer Act of 1975, to facilitate the flexible production and distribution of fertilizers under a stand ardized quality control system.
In the long term, the country's agricultural approach should shift from relying solely on fertilizer to utilizing nutrients efficiently. This means minimizing nutrient loss in the production system through soil management, organic matter, nutrient cycling microorganisms, soil analysis-based fertilizer application, water management, and precision agriculture. The more efficiently fertilizer is used, the lower the risk from global markets, and the more stable the long-term yield. This will lay the foundation for a more self-reliant production system, reduce external risks, and create sustainability for Thai agriculture in the future, aligning with the principle of food security.
A Thammasat University scholar also stated that another issue that should be addressed now is the separation of policies according to the role of each type of fertilizer, and that the term "fertilizer" should not be used in a blanket manner. For example, nitrogen fertilizers are related to energy and natural gas, while phosphate and potash fertilizers have different market mechanisms and raw material sources. Therefore, if policies are not categorized, measures will be misguided regarding reserves, imports, investment, and support for domestic producers.
If Thailand doesn't start doing these things now, it's certain that over 90% of Thailand's agricultural sector, which relies on chemical fertilizers in its production processes, will run out of fertilizers. This will result in a future where raw materials that Thailand produces domestically, such as rice, meat, and vegetables, become scarce to the point of shortages in the Thai market, and the prices of those that are traded elsewhere will increase significantly.
'When raw materials for food become scarce, the amount of food available domestically will also decrease. Thailand could become a country facing a food shortage. Therefore, amending the law to unlock domestic fertilizer production is crucial and must be done urgently. Furthermore, it shouldn't rely on foreign investment to build fertilizer plants, but rather promote investment by Thai people,' Assoc. Prof. Dr. Woraphat said.