Bangkok, The FTI estimates the impact of the war between Israel and Hamas on the world economy next year at 0.1-0.3%, but is still concerned if the violence spreads to the region and will definitely affect the economy around the world. Ready to support digital wallets but focus more on specific groups. Advise the government to consider the minimum wage rate if it is to be raised. Please watch the timing carefully as the economy has not yet recovered.
A joint committee of 3 private sector institutions (CPF) consisting of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers Association, whereby the FTI organized a committee meeting for November 2023 with Mr. Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand, as Chairman of the FTI, presiding over the meeting. Mr. Kriankrai Thiannukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries. of Thailand and Mr. Phayong Sriwanit, President of the Thai Bankers Association Co-chaired the meeting where the FTI assessed the economy as follows:
The war between Israel and Hamas It is a new risk factor for the world economy. War affects energy prices in the world market. If the war becomes severe and spreads to countries that are producing crude oil. Crude oil prices may rise to the level of 140-150 dollars per barrel. However, if within a limited range. It is expected that the price of crude oil will remain below 100 dollars per barrel. And the world economy next year will be affected only by 0.1-0.3%.
However, the impact on the Thai economy from the war will be through trade channels. travel And the price of energy is still not high. Thailand’s trade with Israel, Palestine and surrounding countries is only $1.5 billion per year, or less than 0.3% of international trade. and there are approximately 200,000 tourists per year, or less than 1% of foreign tourists. But if it expands widely, it may affect trade with the Middle East as a whole, which accounts for 4% of Thai exports, and affect the cost of importing energy as a fiscal burden. and living expenses of consumers As the Thai economic recovery has slowed down, the purchasing power of Thai households has begun to weaken. Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourists is likely to be 28-29 million, lower than the previous estimate of 29-30 million.
In addition, there are supporting factors from the extension of additional tourist visa exemption measures for India and Taiwan during the high season, as well as support from government measures to reduce the cost burden for citizens. will help support the Thai economy during the remainder of this year.
Economic projection framework for 2023 of the FTI.
%YoY Year 2023 ( as of September 2023 ) Year 2023 ( as of Oct. ’23 ) Year 2023 ( as of Nov. 66 )
GDP 2.5 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.0 2.5 to 3.0
export -2.0 to -0.5 -2.0 to -0.5 -2.0 to -1.0
inflation 1.7 to 2.2 1.7 to 2.2 1.7 to 2.2
The meeting of the FTI was of the opinion that Issues regarding the Israeli-Palestinian war It has an impact on the world economy. to face more uncertainty This may affect exports in the future. However, Thailand’s main export products, namely agricultural products and automobiles, are still likely to expand during the rest of the year. The FTI has therefore estimated exports to be -2.0 to -1.0 and is concerned about the baht which is in a depreciating direction. Although consistent with other currencies But it is a factor that puts pressure on the current account to be in deficit. From the risk that oil prices in the world market will increase.
In addition, the FTI thanks the government for having measures to reduce the cost of living and the cost of entrepreneurs. Both electricity and gas costs In the past, the FTI hopes that the government will continue to improve the country’s energy cost structure in the long term. To increase competitiveness There are additional proposals for government policy as follows: 1. The FTI agrees with measures to stimulate the economy. digital wallet To help maintain purchasing power within the country. And the target group and expected results should be clearly defined for participating in the project. and should use the same system that is stable, safe, and people are familiar with it Focus on expansion and not duplicate investments. There should also be encouragement to buy products that are produced within the country. To create sustainable and continuous income for the target group. It improves the quality of life and potential of the country. along with coordinating with other economic policies to create continuity and enhance the competitiveness of Thai businesses.
2. As for the policy for adjusting the minimum wage rate, the FTI views that due to the economic slowdown coupled with high production costs and entrepreneurs are still in the recovery phase Therefore, consider adjusting the minimum wage to be consistent with the economic conditions in each area. Mainly using the mechanism of the tripartite wage committee of each province. Including promoting employment according to skills (Pay by Skill) in order to increase labor income along with labor efficiency. (Productivity) In the past, the private sector has collaborated with the Department of Skill Development. The project has been carried out to establish labor skill standards for 88 professional fields, such as welding. Machine maintenance technician automotive assemblers, etc., which have already begun testing But with limitations on the number of testing centers Inadequate tools Including the budget for support Therefore unable to carry out the project to its full potential.
Source: Thai News Agency