Bangkok: The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has issued a warning regarding multiple negative factors impacting export and import price indices. These factors include global economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, increased transportation costs, and uncertainty surrounding the Thai baht exchange rate. Despite these pressures, the indices continue to show growth, warranting close monitoring of the situation.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Nantapong Chiraleartpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS), highlighted the pressures from global economic uncertainty and demand from trading partners. Geopolitical situations, especially the tense situation in the Middle East, coupled with high logistics costs and the volatility of the Thai baht, are beginning to affect the direction of Thailand's international trade prices.
In February 2026, Thailand's export price index stood at 113.3, marking a 2.2 percent increase compared to the same month of the previous year. This rise was driven by a 2.8 percent increase in the industrial goods category, notably in gold, computers, equipment and components, and air conditioners, due to a surge in global demand for technology products and investments in AI and data centers, as well as warmer weather in various regions.
The agricultural sector saw a 1.4 percent increase, propelled by cassava products due to strong demand in major markets like China, and fresh, chilled, frozen, and processed chicken, which experienced heightened global demand. The agro-industrial sector experienced a modest rise of 0.2 percent, attributed to the ongoing popularity of canned seafood, pet food, and non-alcoholic beverages. Conversely, the mineral and fuel sector saw a 6.6 percent decline, particularly in refined oil, reflecting an earlier increase in global supply alongside slowed demand in some countries.
In the same period, the import price index rose by 4.9 percent to 120.3, reflecting continued expansion in manufacturing and investment activities. The raw materials and semi-finished goods category experienced a 10.9 percent increase, driven by gold, electrical and electronic equipment and components, and various metal ores.
The consumer goods category grew by 6.4 percent, driven by home appliances, medical and pharmaceutical products, and jewelry. Meanwhile, the capital goods category increased by 4.2 percent, with contributions from electrical machinery, computers, and scientific and medical equipment, signifying ongoing investment. The vehicles and transportation equipment category rose by 2.3 percent, highlighting the expansion of modern automotive technology.
Despite a continuing contraction in the fuel category, the decline was less severe at 9.4 percent, driven by a decrease in natural gas, petroleum, crude oil, and refined oil products, following a previous downward trend in global energy prices.
Looking ahead to March 2026, a continued expansion in price indices is anticipated, spurred by the US implementation of Section 122, which reduces import tariffs from Thailand and supports accelerated exports within a 150-day period. This is coupled with increased demand for agricultural products and processed foods due to food security concerns, as well as sustained demand for electronics and high-tech industrial goods in the global market.
The TPSO emphasized the importance of monitoring key factors such as global economic trends, demand from trading partners, potentially prolonged conflicts in the Middle East, volatile transportation and shipping costs, uncertainty in trade policy, and fluctuations in the Thai baht exchange rate. These are crucial variables affecting Thailand's competitiveness in the coming period.