Bangkok: Trump's recent approach is causing global unease, affecting various geopolitical and economic groups, with experts warning of potential unrest in the coming weeks.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Panithan Wattanayagorn, a security and foreign affairs expert, shared insights on MCOT News FM 100.5 about US President Donald Trump's significant speech on April 2, 2026. Dr. Panithan described Trump's communication style as "stability in instability," characterized by alternating between confrontation and negotiation, alongside informal dialogue through intermediaries, including China.
Trump's address targeted three main groups. The American public was reassured of the nearing end of the war, without a precise timeline, while emphasizing US energy self-sufficiency. However, this message inadvertently drove oil prices higher amid declining approval ratings. The second target was Iran, where Trump issued a threat of attack should negotiations not proceed, prompting Iran to label the US as the aggressor. Lastly, Trump's message to allies recognized some Middle Eastern nations' roles but warned Europe and Asia of potential reliance on their own energy resources due to a lack of support.
The US is engaging in a "two-sided game," prepared to retreat if markets destabilize but also ready for military action, evidenced by deploying an aircraft carrier to the region. The next two weeks are pivotal in determining the success of negotiations, with the risk of increased military action if they fail. Iran's situation remains unstable, with significant military infrastructure damage yet persistent pressure tactics, such as the "closing the strait" strategy, and mobilizing regional armed groups, indicating potential widespread tension.
The global and Thai economies are feeling the impact, particularly in gas, electricity, and transportation costs, exacerbated by altered shipping routes. Insurance risks are heightened, and oil prices remain stubbornly high due to damaged production capacity and a daily loss of 15-20 million barrels, potentially requiring 3-5 years for recovery. Dr. Panithan noted that many nations might need to implement special laws to control commodity prices. Meanwhile, the world is transitioning into a 'New Normal,' with permanently higher energy prices, necessitating cautious government spending and long-term adjustments to adapt to a transformed global system.