Islamabad: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is now reaching a critical point after the 21-hour negotiations in Islamabad failed. US Vice President JD Vance returned to Washington empty-handed, unable to reach a "final offer" with Iran. Dr. Arm Tangnirandorn, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Law, noted that Trump's team's approach was brilliant but fraught with immense risk. Initially, Iran attempted a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing ships from allies like China to pass through and trying to collect tolls to sell oil amidst sanctions. However, Trump countered with a second layer of closure, deploying the US Navy to block all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. The goal is to cripple Iran and pressure China, which relies heavily on oil through the strait, to help pressure Iran back to the negotiating table.

According to Thai News Agency, from Dr. Armitage's perspective, Trump remains a "risk taker" who prefers high-stakes games. Trump assesses that Iran is at its weakest point and "has no cards left" beyond landmines and drones. Therefore, he chooses to exert maximum pressure in the hope of obtaining a "better deal," particularly on the "red line" issue of nuclear weapons, where Iran must decisively stop uranium enrichment. However, the frightening aspect is that Iran, having nothing to lose, might choose to starve and hold the entire global economy hostage. While the US might suffer less in terms of energy resources, soaring global energy prices will inevitably impact Americans and the global economy.

The differences between China and Russia in this battleground, and the roles of other major powers, are equally interesting.

++China: It's clear that China does not want to close the strait because it has to feed its 1.4 billion people and has enormous interests in the energy infrastructure surrounding Iran. Reports indicate that China has signaled pressure on Iran to be more flexible in its position to end the war.

++Russia: Became the Big Winner. Russia is not worried about energy costs and benefits from higher oil prices to fund the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia provides intelligence to Iran to keep the US mired in the Middle East conflict for as long as possible.

However, Dr. Arm concluded by saying that we are currently not in a normal economic situation, but rather in a "war-time economy" which may last longer than expected. The risk of supply shocks and energy shortages is already a reality. For Thailand, both the business sector and national policies need to plan for and address the energy shortage and price crisis that will affect all costs.

This is a crucial test of how we adapt to a world where instability has become the new normal, a result of the political maneuvering of leaders like Donald Trump.