Bangkok: The year 2026 commenced with a seismic geopolitical event as the United States, led by Donald Trump, initiated a military operation to detain Venezuelan President Nicol¡s Maduro. Associate Professor Dr. Danuwat Sakarik of the Faculty of Public Administration at the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) highlighted this operation as the most significant geopolitical act of violence in decades, indicating a shift towards an era where "global politics leads economics" decisively.
According to Thai News Agency, the anticipated surge in global oil prices has not materialized despite Venezuela's vast oil reserves. Dr. Danuwat clarifies that Venezuela's internal mismanagement has restricted its oil production to approximately 1 million barrels per day, accounting for just 0.5% of global production. Consequently, a short-term supply shock has been avoided. However, if the United States' intervention succeeds in attracting foreign investment, Venezuela could emerge as a crucial energy source, potentially stabilizing global energy prices in the long term.
In the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, Dr. Danuwat notes that investors are gravitating towards safe-haven assets, with gold emerging as a preferred choice. The stock markets, meanwhile, may face increased volatility due to escalating geopolitical tensions. The weakening global order poses additional risks, raising the cost of capital access for emerging markets amid these uncertainties.
Dr. Danuwat warns that despite Thailand's geographical distance from Latin America, indirect repercussions could be significant, particularly in two areas. Firstly, China's power dynamics, given its close ties with Venezuela, may compel an adjustment in its energy strategy, potentially involving Southeast Asia in the power tussle. Secondly, multinational corporations may shift their focus from merely seeking cheap labor to prioritizing countries with political stability and clear foreign policy frameworks for their production bases.
To navigate these challenges, Dr. Danuwat advises Thailand to adopt a strategy focused on neutrality and resilience. By positioning itself as a neutral production base, Thailand can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) without aligning with any major power blocs. Building resilience through domestic strength and productivity, alongside accelerating alternative energy policies, will be crucial for mitigating future risks associated with global oil price volatility.
Dr. Danuwat further emphasizes that the global landscape resembles a game where traditional neutral rules are becoming ineffective, with dominant players increasingly resorting to force to resolve conflicts. For smaller nations like Thailand, adopting "neutrality" and "flexibility" is not merely strategic but imperative for survival.