University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce This year’s exports are estimated to be negative, next year they will return to positive 3.6%.

Bangkok Center for Economic and Business Forecasting University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Identify Thai exports during the first 8 months of this year. It is still contracting at 4.5% and it is agreed that throughout this year it will be negative, but next year it is estimated that exports will expand by 3.6%, returning to being the main driver of the Thai economy. Second to the digital wallet measure of 10,000 baht.

Mr. Thanawat Phonwichai, President and Advisor to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said that the results of the analysis of Thai exports in the 4th quarter of 2023 found that they had started to improve, returning to expand up to 6.8% from the past 3 quarters of this year that were continuously negative. from a low export base in the same period last year. The baht tends to depreciate Slowing inflation and agricultural products and food that can be exported more from the need for food security But the whole year Still contracted at 2%, export value approximately 281,593 million US dollars.

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As for next year, 2024, from inflation. and slowdown in interest rates in various countries, resulting in increased demand for products. together with Thailand's policy to promote exports, including soft power and resolving border trade barriers. and pushing for the utilization of free trade agreements or FTAs will further stimulate exports in various markets. Therefore, it is expected that exports for the whole year 2024 will expand by 3.6%, worth 291,773 million US dollars. But there are risk factors to follow from interest rates that remain high, putting pressure on the global economic recovery. El Niño problems will affect Thai agricultural production to decline. The value of the baht is expected to strengthen, affecting competition. and higher crude oil prices affect costs.

Including another factor that must be monitored is geopolitical conflicts. both between China and the United States Russia-Ukraine And most recently, the Israeli war broke out. with Hamas But until now It is still believed that it will not affect Thai exports. Even though the situation may be prolonged But it is expected that the impact on export value will be reduced by only 0.1%, valued at approximately 369 million USD, or in the worst case scenario, the war spreads throughout the Middle East. It will affect Thai exports by shrinking by 1.7% or a value of approximately 4.7 billion US dollars. But there is a very small chance of this happening.

However, it is expected that Thai exports at this time There have been signs of improvement since the fourth quarter and will be an important economic driver next year. There is an average amount of money returned to the system of approximately 300,000-350,000 million baht is the hero of the Thai economy. After digital wallets If calculated from the original base that the government calculated, 5 hundred and 60 billion baht would be additional money to drive the Thai economy next year to grow in the range of 4.5-5%, but the risk factor that is worrisome is El Niño. That will affect the value of agricultural product exports each year, 1 trillion baht. If 2-6% is lost, money will disappear from the system. 20,000-60,000 million baht is considered very high. Therefore, if using digital wallet money Adjusted to distribute to only 40 million people from the population database. with an income of less than 10,000 baht per month as 3 private sector institutions or the FTI propose to use the money From the remaining more than 100 billion baht, go to projects to solve water problems. from a drought that will drag on for many years To prevent income from shrinking of people, grassroots groups, etc. -Thai news agency

Source: Thai News Agency