Bangkok: The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, now stretching over six weeks, continues to intensify with no signs of resolution. Recent developments include the downing of a US aircraft, attacks on civilian targets in Israel, and assaults on ships in critical areas, complicating efforts for peaceful resolution.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Somchai Pakphasanwiwat, an expert in political economy, shared insights on MCOT News FM 100.5, highlighting the United States' strategy of "simulated pressure." This involves showcasing military might to push Iran towards negotiations without instigating a full-scale war, despite recent threats from Trump. Iran, however, is prepared to retaliate, potentially targeting US allies and disrupting oil transportation.
The situation is further complicated by the Houthi rebels' actions against Israel and control over parts of the Red Sea, escalating tensions along vital energy routes. Saudi Arabia, attempting to mitigate risks through its East-West pipeline, faces ongoing Iranian threats of retaliation.
In a recent development, Trump indicated potential attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, raising concerns over violations of international law, especially if civilian areas are affected. Analysts suggest these are strategic moves aimed at applying pressure rather than causing outright destruction.
Both nations appear to be exploring diplomatic solutions, with Iran seeking sovereignty guarantees and the US demanding an end to Iran's nuclear and missile activities and its support for Hezbollah in exchange for lifting sanctions. Potential negotiations could involve a temporary ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but any escalation might lead the US to conduct targeted operations to claim victory and exit quickly.
Behind closed doors, secret negotiations continue amid the conflict, driven by internal pressures in the US, including anti-war sentiment and economic challenges from rising oil prices, which have led to a significant drop in Trump's approval ratings ahead of the election. Meanwhile, Iran's complex military structure and decentralized strategy add layers of complexity to the ongoing crisis.