Bangkok: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce anticipates that economic recovery measures set for the end of the year will enhance GDP growth by 2-2.2 percent.
According to Thai News Agency, the introduction of several year-end initiatives is predicted to spur GDP growth for 2025 by the same percentage, with citizens prepared to engage with the “Half-Half Plus” scheme. This scheme is expected to circulate 45 billion baht during the upcoming vegetarian festival.
Dr. Thanawat Phonwichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, highlighted that the “Half-Half Plus” program involves 44 billion baht in government subsidies, an equal amount from local participants, 22 billion baht from welfare card assistance, and tourism promotion measures. These measures include a 1x tax deduction for travel to major cities and a 1.5x deduction for secondary cities. Additionally, government entities have initiated training and seminars, injecting 20-30 billion baht into the system. Collectively, these projects have brought in 150 billion baht, raising Q4 GDP growth by 0.8-1.1 percent, and achieving the projected annual growth.
Regarding inflation, the government projects zero percent inflation in 2025. Despite several months of negative inflation leading to deflation, core inflation remains positive, minimizing concern. The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Thailand have adjusted the inflation target from 1-3 percent to 0.5-3 percent for 2026. A potential interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee could further encourage investment and consumption. However, there is uncertainty regarding the government’s constitutional amendments, which might result in the dissolution of Parliament between January and March 2026.
Umakan Sunthornsurat, Assistant Director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, reported survey findings on the “Half-Half Plus” program. A majority (32.6%) of respondents are willing to spend the full 400 baht daily allowance, combining personal and government funds. Additionally, 37.0% are inclined to purchase consumer goods, and 10.6% prefer agricultural raw materials, with most opting for cash payments. Notably, 20.3% of participants view the program as significantly beneficial to the Thai economy, with 56.3% of businesses indicating an income boost from participation. However, 21.4% of non-participating businesses cited concerns about tax collection.
For the Vegetarian Festival from October 21-29, 2025, public opinion suggests it will surpass last year’s event, with spending reaching 5,200 baht per person, a five-year high. An expected 2% increase in cash flow could total 45 billion baht. Despite a slight decline in vegetarianism from 36% to 34%, concerns about rising food prices persist. Some families are unable to participate fully, citing economic challenges and household debt as ongoing issues.
Dr. Wachira Koonthaweetep, Vice President for Strategy, noted that the SME Business Capability Index for Q3 2015 remains below 50 percent at 42.8 percent. This reflects a lack of confidence among SMEs, who continue to operate at a normalized pace. The government is urged to provide additional support to SMEs to ensure resilience against potential economic crises.