Bangkok, The Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I.) assesses industry trends in 2024 with opportunities for growth. We must accelerate exports and tourism. But worried about the world political situation Russo-Ukrainian War Red Sea situation Climate change that will affect the Thai industrial sector

Mr. Montree Mahaprukphong, Vice President of the Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I.), said that F.T.I. surveyed the opinions of the presidents of 46 industrial groups and the presidents of the five industrial federation regions to present views on industry trends. Both branches and by region Including reflecting opinions on supporting factors and worrying factors that are expected to affect the industry in 2024. Results of the assessment of trends in 46 industry groups and 5 regions in 2024 found that trends in 46 industry groups Industry groups expected will expand better, with a total of 22 industrial groups As for the industrial groups that are expected to be stable, there are a total of 11 industry groups
. and industrial groups that are expected There will be a total of 13 industrial groups shrinking. Most of the industries are in the group that tends to expand better than last year.

For industrial trends in 5 regions, industry in the eastern region is expected to expand. industrial sector in the northern region The northeastern and southern regions are expected to be stable. Meanwhile, the industry in the central region is expected to shrink.

There are factors supporting the industrial sector as follows:

1. Benefit from increased demand for goods and services from economic stimulus measures and expansion of the tourism sector.

2. The goal of achieving a free trade agreement (FTA) by 2024, such as Thailand-Sri Lanka, Thailand-European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and Thailand-United Arab Emirates (UAE), including accelerating negotiations. FTA Thailand-EU (EU) and Thailand-Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries must be completed as soon as possible. It will greatly increase the handicap for Thai
entrepreneurs.

3. Low volatility in the value of the baht and there are appropriate rates for both exporters/importers

4. The trend of product orders from important trading partners such as the United States, Europe, and China is increasing, including potential markets such as the Arab Gulf GCC.

5. Entrepreneurs have invested more in using renewable energy. Because there are cheaper prices, especially solar cells. To reduce electricity costs

6. The direction of raw material prices has decreased as the shortage problem has been resolved. and have access to new sources of substitute raw materials

Factors of concern include:

1. The direction of electricity prices increasing due to high electricity production costs and debt problems of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)

2. Problems of geopolitical conflict and war in Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas. Protracted, increasing the impact on world energy prices.

3. Raising the minimum wage at an excessively high rate Affecting production costs

4.
Financial costs remain high due to increased interest rates on loans. and strictness in lending

5. Impact of low-quality products entering the market for customers in ASEAN. Affecting Thai border trade with neighboring countries

6. Problems with non-tariff trade protection measures (NTM/NTB), such as the EU’s pre-cross-border carbon price adjustment measure (CBAM).

Mr. Kriengkrai Thiannukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I.), added that The Thai industrial sector in 2024 is still likely to expand better from a low base effect. Because last year many industries, especially production for export, faced the problem of the economy of trading partners slowing down. In 2024, the driving force of the Thai economy has the opportunity to grow from supporting factors in both the merchandise export sector that will return. Can expand Private investment will recover accordingly. The tourism sector will continue to expand through visa-free measures. and government economic stimulus measures Attract
ing foreign investment Including the use of benefits from new FTAs ??from the goal of achieving FTAs ??by 2024, such as Thailand-Sri Lanka, Thailand-EFTA and Thailand-UAE, etc., which will help increase Thailand’s competitiveness in exporting goods. more

However, one must watch out for the impact of climate change problems, which increase the risk of natural disasters. These challenges The Thai industrial sector must watch closely. Currently it is the dry season. El Niño conditions may affect agricultural production.

For 2024, F.T.I. continues to focus on increasing the country’s competitiveness as an important goal under the F.T.I. proposal, including improving laws to facilitate business operations. Accelerating FTA negotiations such as Thailand-EU and Thailand-GCC, promoting investment and upgrading target industries. Promoting and upgrading SME entrepreneurs, including moving towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and net zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero) to strengthen the foundation for
driving the Thai economy going forward.

Mr. Udon Kongkhakhet, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Logistics and Supply Chain, said that The world economy is still volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. (Geopolitics) and the war that occurred Including the world political situation Especially important national elections that will be held this year. In addition, the US-China trade war which is still protracted and may become more severe In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian war that is still dragging on, We still need to monitor the situation in the Red Sea. In the case of the Houthis in Yemen attacking commercial shipping ships passing through the Red Sea. It affects the transportation of goods, especially between Asia and Europe. This may cause the shipping time by boat to be longer. Freight rates may increase. Energy costs may increase. as well as the impact on the supply chain of important products. The Thai industrial sector must keep a close eye on this.

Source: Thai News Agency