Bangkok, Chairman of the Advisory Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Revealing the Consumer Confidence Index for October 2023 from many measures to encourage people to dare to travel and spend. Looking at the economy improving But there is also concern that the war between Israel and Hamas will become more violent.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanawat Phonwichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Advisory Chairman of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting. Mentioning the results of the Consumer Confidence Index survey for October 2023 that from the results of the Consumer Confidence Survey in October 2023, the Consumer Confidence Index improved for the third consecutive month due to consumers Confidence began to return after the new government was established and the government created a policy to reduce the cost of living by reducing electricity and gas prices. As well as having policies to stimulate the economy, consumers also see that Thai politics will be more stable in the future after the government is established to dissolve various political divisions with different opinions, with political conflicts likely to increase. will be eased As a result, the confidence of every consumer has improved in every item.
However, consumers are still concerned about the global economic slowdown. A war in the Middle East that may prolong and escalate as well as raising policy interest rates to solve the problem of inflation in countries around the world that may be a factor that increases the pressure of the recovery of the world economic system into recession. This has a negative effect on Thai exports, causing exports to shrink during this period. and has a negative impact on the purchasing power of people in every region
The overall economic confidence index Index of confidence in overall job opportunities and the index of confidence in future income was at 54.5, 57.0, and 69.2, respectively, improving for the third consecutive month in every item when compared to the index in September. At the levels of 53.2, 55.4, and 67.4, respectively, it indicates that consumers are beginning to regain confidence that the Thai economy can recover after the government is established. However, the index is still lower than normal (at the 100 level), indicating that Consumers are still uncertain about the economic situation. Opportunity to find work and future income because there is concern about the political situation in the country Energy prices and the cost of living remain stable at high levels. as well as the global economic problem that is at risk of entering a state of slowdown. This will affect the Thai economy and employment to have a chance to recover slowly in the future. This makes the future income of consumers highly uncertain. The improvement of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from 58.7 to 60.2 is an improvement for the third consecutive month.
However, the fact that the overall consumer confidence index continues to move below 100 indicates that consumers still see that the overall economic situation is still recovering slowly, the high cost of living and the increase in interest rates in Thailand and Around the world The war between Israel and Hamas in Pabentein may escalate. It has a negative psychological impact on domestic purchasing power. Tourism sector, export sector, general business and future employment There is still an opportunity to continually undermine consumer confidence both at present and in the future in the near term.
Current consumer confidence improved for the third consecutive month from 42.9 to 44.0, while the future confidence index improved for the third consecutive month as well. It improved from the level of 66.3 to the level of 68.0. The consumer confidence index returned to improve in every item. It shows that consumer confidence has begun to improve due to the political situation and the establishment of a new, stable government. As a result, consumer confidence is likely to continue to improve in the future. Especially if the new government can stimulate the Thai economy to recover quickly and concretely under the announced policies.
“Although the consumer confidence index has begun to improve for several months, But it is considered still not fully improved. This is because consumers are waiting to hear from the government for clarity on how much real money the digital wallet project will use. Including the adjustment of the labor wage rate to a minimum of 400 baht per day, in what period and how realistic will the salary rate for civil servants be? These things, people will keep an eye on how clear these measures will be next year. It is expected that if it comes out clearly, it is believed that the economic growth rate next year will grow to 3.5-4 percent or may grow more than this. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce will assess the overall picture of the Thai economy again at the end of November. “Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanawat Said. -
Source: Thai News Agency