Bangkok: The Ministry of Finance has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 upwards to 2.5%, driven by surging exports and a surge in foreign investment to 187 billion baht, a growth of 68.3%.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Vinit Visetsuwannapoom, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, revealed that the Ministry of Finance has revised its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth in 2026 upwards to 2.5% from the previously projected 1.6% in April. This upward revision is primarily driven by a clear recovery in exports, investment, and private consumption.
A key positive factor driving Thailand's economic growth stems from the rebound in global demand for goods. The Ministry of Finance forecasts that merchandise exports, in US dollars, will expand by as much as 12.5%, an upward revision from the previous forecast of 6.2%. This is reflected in the average growth of 10.9% in the first five months of the year, in line with the global economic recovery cycle.
Meanwhile, private sector investment is another key engine, expected to grow by 9.0% driven by increased imports of machinery and equipment, as well as support from the Thailand FastPass investment acceleration measures. This resulted in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2026 exceeding 187 billion baht, a growth of 68.3% compared to the same period last year, particularly investment in new S-Curve target industries. Imports are expected to grow by 19.0%, a positive sign as they primarily consist of capital goods and machinery in preparation for production expansion, despite the impact of higher energy prices in the second quarter.
On the domestic economic front, private consumption continued to expand well at 2.7%, benefiting from the government's measures to alleviate the cost of living, particularly in the energy sector. Furthermore, the timely completion of the 2027 budget dispelled concerns about budget delays, leading to expectations of a 3.2% growth in government investment and a 1.5% growth in government consumption. In particular, the continued implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects (Mega Projects) will act as a magnet, attracting continued private sector investment (crowding-in effect).
Overall economic stability remains good. The headline inflation rate is projected at 2.0% per year, based on the assumption of an average Dubai crude oil price of US$82 per barrel (down from the previous forecast of US$91). Meanwhile, the current account deficit may be small, around US$500 million, or -0.1% of GDP, due to the energy deficit in the first half of the year.
Mr. Vinit emphasized that the Ministry of Finance aims for 2026 to be a true "year of investment," highlighting Thailand's strengths in regional infrastructure and its proactive neutrality, which allows it to avoid taking sides and become an attractive destination for investors seeking to relocate production bases away from conflict.
However, there are three risk factors that need to be closely monitored: tensions in the Middle East could drive up energy prices, protectionist trade policies, especially temporary tariffs imposed by the United States, and the "Super El Ni±o" climate crisis could cause extreme heat and severe drought towards the end of the year, directly impacting agricultural costs and food production.