Jakarta: In a time when the global order is facing volatility, the ASEAN region faces not only geopolitical and economic challenges, but we are entering an era of "global turmoil" where natural disasters are beginning to have more severe and unpredictable impacts. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piti Srisangnam analyzes that viewing natural disasters through a strategic security lens is therefore essential to understand that these events are not merely temporary accidents, but factors that can shake the economic stability and institutional structures of the region in the long term.
According to Thai News Agency, ASEAN's geographical vulnerability is deeply rooted in its location on the "Ring of Fire," particularly Indonesia, which has as many as 120-130 active volcanoes. Understanding the history of disasters is therefore a crucial foundation for current strategic planning, as past tremors are indicators of the severity of future disasters. The eruption of Krakatau Mountain in 1883 set the standard for global catastrophe, with its explosion heard as far away as Bangkok and Perth, Australia. This catastrophic event remains a tangible threat through the eruption of Anak Krakatau, whose massive eruption in 2018 resulted in 437 deaths and left more than 40,000 people homeless.
The damaging mechanisms of large volcanic eruptions extend beyond immediate destruction. Dust and ash ejected into the atmosphere can lead to ecological changes that affect climate-dependent agricultural economies. Large volcanic eruptions can lower the average global temperature significantly, as evidenced by the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, which caused a temperature drop lasting up to two years. This impacts food security as the ripening of cash crops is delayed, leading to famine and further damage to the global food supply chain.
Strategically, natural disasters are a collective threat that undermines the regional competitiveness of ASEAN. In Vietnam, the Mekong Delta is facing a crisis due to El Ni±o and saltwater intrusion. The Philippines is experiencing an alarming increase in the frequency of super typhoons, causing massive economic damage. Thailand's 2011 floods highlighted the fragility of the manufacturing base, while Myanmar's experience with Super Cyclone Nargis in 2008 remains a stark reminder of potential devastation.
To address these challenges, ASEAN has established institutional mechanisms for managing emergency situations. The AADMER Plan sets standards for interoperability, while the AHA Center in Jakarta monitors seismic activity in real-time. The ERAT team assesses situations for targeted rescue operations, and the DELSA Warehouse System stocks life-saving equipment strategically across the region. Despite robust systems, budgetary constraints remain a challenge for large-scale infrastructure retrofitting.
ASEAN must upgrade its strategy to build "strategic resilience" through proposals such as the establishment of the ASEAN Climate Fund to address funding shortages for disaster-resistant infrastructure. Enhancing cooperation on transboundary haze pollution and utilizing surveillance technology for real-time hotspot detection are also crucial. The focus must shift from merely responding to disasters to becoming resilient enough to sustainably grow amidst climate volatility, preserving prosperity and stability for all ASEAN people.