Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center indicates that the Thai baht is expected to experience volatility in the upcoming week, with the spotlight on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the Federal Reserve, along with export performance and fund flows.
According to Thai News Agency, the Thai baht reached a two-month high of 32.64 baht per dollar last week, closing at 32.67 baht. The SET index also saw a modest increase of 0.29%. Kasikorn Bank anticipates the baht to fluctuate within a range of 32.30-33.00 baht per dollar in the coming week, with the SET index supported at 1,600 points and facing resistance at 1,630 points. Key factors to monitor include the Bank of Thailand's MPC meeting, foreign capital flow trends, Thai export performance, and statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, amidst ongoing risks from the Middle East.
Kasikorn Research Center reported that last week's strengthening of the Thai baht to 32.64 baht per dollar was driven by selling pressure on the US dollar, following weak US economic data. Thailand's Q2 2026 GDP growth was lower than anticipated, while rising gold prices further supported the baht. However, the baht weakened slightly amid concerns over increasing tensions in the Middle East. As of August 21, 2026, the baht stood at 32.67 baht per dollar, an improvement from 33.15 baht the preceding week. Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks, totaling 3,456 million baht, with a net outflow of 3,923 million baht from the Thai bond market.
For the week of August 24-28, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the baht to trade within the range of 32.30-33.00 baht per US dollar. Kasikorn Research Center highlights key factors to observe, such as the Bank of Thailand's MPC meeting on August 26, Thailand's July export figures, foreign fund flows, and developments in the Middle East. Market participants are also awaiting the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole. Important US economic data to watch includes new home sales, the PCE/Core PCE price index, July durable goods orders, August consumer confidence index, Q2 2026 GDP preliminary figures, and weekly jobless claims.
The Thai stock market experienced fluctuations last week before recovering to close higher towards the week's end. Early in the week, the market was buoyed by better-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP figures, with the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) revising its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to 2.2% from 2.0%. This stimulated buying interest, particularly in banking stocks, before facing selling pressure from foreign investors and concerns over the Middle East situation. The electronics components sector saw declines in line with international technology stocks, while some large banks faced pressure due to major shareholders reducing their shareholdings. The index rebounded towards the end of the week due to buying in energy stocks and buybacks in banking stocks. On August 21, 2026, the SET closed at 1,613.78 points, a 0.29% increase from the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 81,954.62 million baht, rising by 12.53%. The mai index increased by 1.11% to close at 230.28 p oints.
Looking ahead to the following week (August 24-28, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. projects the Thai stock index to have support levels at 1,600 and 1,585 points, with resistance levels at 1,630 and 1,655 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center advises monitoring key factors, including the Bank of Thailand's MPC meeting scheduled for August 26, Thailand's July export figures, the Federal Reserve Chairman's statement from the annual Jackson Hole meeting, the Middle East situation, and foreign capital flows. Important US economic data to watch includes new home sales, durable goods orders, the PCE/Core PCE price index, July personal income and spending, Q2 2026 GDP figures, and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, China's July industrial profits will be a critical international economic factor to observe.